Ecuador to win 2026 FIFA World Cup
Ecuador is priced at 1¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 1¢ bid, 1¢ ask, 0¢ spread. This outcome ranks #2 of 16 inside 2026 FIFA World Cup Winner .
Price history
1¢ current
−49¢Contract brief
This market will resolve according to the national team that wins the 2026 FIFA World Cup. If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Outcome
Ecuador
Rank
#2 of 16
Leader
France 18¢
Range
0¢-18¢
Family volume
$497.2M
Identifier
0xbaf7780f...8da4
May 23, 2026, 6:10 PM UTC · 0m ago
Implied probability
Bid
1¢
Ask
1¢
Spread
0¢
24h volume
$927K
Family rank
#2 of 16
16 outcomes · 2026 FIFA World Cup Winner
Closes
Jul 20, 2026
Family volume
$497.2M
Orderbook snapshot
1 / 1¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
This market will resolve according to the national team that wins the 2026 FIFA World Cup. If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Jul 20, 2026
Identifier
0xbaf7780f…8da4
Event family
2026 FIFA World Cup Winner .
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$497.2M
Outcomes
16
Highest price
France 18¢
Current share
5%
France
polymarket · 0x9b6fef249040fd17e9c107955b37ac2c3e923509b6b0ff01cc463a331ddeb894
USA
polymarket · 0xcdb1f0400949238a63d3e88243d2ada08cd9c2a71985ced9f0cfd5e66354cf90
Austria
polymarket · 0xfe230d510eaf545198c0d62bb17871e5fe8989f1b19aa54c0c062b858360987c
Ecuador
polymarket · 0xbaf7780f9059e34b84301fd411f8dc573b4d56adfe6e0cda33daf304b1438da4
Uzbekistan
polymarket · 0x965ebc5d79eb1ec02cad67245a44b9e45b33359018f013fb6cf81d5bbf7bcc8d
Curaçao
polymarket · 0xdb4b2f370c3d0e996fbb32213c87aa5402936e3d4882432b6738e2f5661b79a6
New Zealand
polymarket · 0x9e5f9d8c384f8fe368b195fa9a780be58643dff7360588a4e577012df8af00a7
Saudi Arabia
polymarket · 0x3fb8a8de2ac275882d72b2c4f22d41776fcf033f9e413a77a84dd395c0d5257c
South Africa
polymarket · 0x233ce0c3969a5cd5079287f16fcd283be7c1db82263e08697f85dbe1b4d2113c
Jordan
polymarket · 0x33a87d02fa01e958929385c74b8627d32cc4474e9ebd312d268865c5207147fa
Qatar
polymarket · 0x4fe305a2ae995a52ff278895344895fe587b4fec3d5f04347b4dbf5e99bce99c
Iran
polymarket · 0x84edef36bded182da6a395ac6c785dba8f3e09b6c5ad041385b2042536cbef25
South Korea
polymarket · 0x65307f30dce84ac35e41813035d3c04933da830dc4efbbb2fcdc4b282700ef3b
Australia
polymarket · 0x098e2be3df8ab529940c567819f8ef007cf007820e9d627642a5bbfaa42af372
Cape Verde
polymarket · 0x3bc69cb672591e4fcd2ef856b64b219a906e15d4601b50066ac81a446574dfaf
Egypt
polymarket · 0x7412d284c8f63791fec807f9b1f61c6fe61163621775a3dc8686cd2575272abe
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.341
Observability
low
Event type
sports
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SimpleFunctions context
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Event Probability API
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.