2026 James Beard Award for Outstanding Bakery
Super Secret Ice Cream is priced at 11¢ midpoint on Kalshi. Current book: 10¢ bid, 11¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #3 of 6 inside 2026 James Beard Award for Outstanding Bakery.
Price history
11¢ current
+6¢Contract brief
If Super Secret Ice Cream has won Outstanding Bakery at the 36th James Beard Restaurant and Chef Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Super Secret Ice Cream
Rank
#3 of 6
Leader
Fire Island Rustic Bakeshop 53¢
Range
2¢-53¢
Family volume
$200
Identifier
KXJAMESBEARD-36-OB-SUP
May 28, 2026, 10:38 PM UTC · 20m ago
Implied probability
Bid
10¢
Ask
11¢
Spread
1¢
Reported volume
$0
Family rank
#3 of 6
6 outcomes · 2026 James Beard Award for Outstanding Bakery
Closes
Jun 16, 2027
Family volume
$200
Orderbook snapshot
10 / 11¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Super Secret Ice Cream has won Outstanding Bakery at the 36th James Beard Restaurant and Chef Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jun 16, 2027
Identifier
KXJAMESBEARD-36-OB-SUP
Event family
2026 James Beard Award for Outstanding Bakery.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$200
Outcomes
6
Highest price
Fire Island Rustic Bakeshop 53¢
Current share
0%
Fire Island Rustic Bakeshop
kalshi · KXJAMESBEARD-36-OB-FIR
Cultured
kalshi · KXJAMESBEARD-36-OB-CUL
Super Secret Ice Cream
kalshi · KXJAMESBEARD-36-OB-SUP
Wild Crumb, Bozeman
kalshi · KXJAMESBEARD-36-OB-WIL
Weltons Tiny Bakeshop
kalshi · KXJAMESBEARD-36-OB-WEL
Tie
kalshi · KXJAMESBEARD-36-OB-TIE
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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SimpleFunctions context
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Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
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Event Probability API
Read 11% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.