2026 James Beard Award for Outstanding Chef
Niki Nakayama is priced at 20¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 15¢ bid, 16¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #3 of 6 inside 2026 James Beard Award for Outstanding Chef.
Price history
20¢ current
+16¢Contract brief
If Niki Nakayama has won Outstanding Chef at the 36th James Beard Restaurant and Chef Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Niki Nakayama
Rank
#3 of 6
Leader
Gilberto Cetina 42¢
Range
2¢-42¢
Family volume
$701
Identifier
KXJAMESBEARD-36-OC-NIK
May 28, 2026, 9:38 PM UTC · 8m ago
Implied probability
Bid
15¢
Ask
16¢
Spread
1¢
Reported volume
$1
Family rank
#3 of 6
6 outcomes · 2026 James Beard Award for Outstanding Chef
Closes
Jun 16, 2027
Family volume
$701
Orderbook snapshot
15 / 16¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Niki Nakayama has won Outstanding Chef at the 36th James Beard Restaurant and Chef Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jun 16, 2027
Identifier
KXJAMESBEARD-36-OC-NIK
Event family
2026 James Beard Award for Outstanding Chef.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$701
Outcomes
6
Highest price
Gilberto Cetina 42¢
Current share
0%
Gilberto Cetina
kalshi · KXJAMESBEARD-36-OC-GIL
Michael Tusk
kalshi · KXJAMESBEARD-36-OC-MIC
Niki Nakayama
kalshi · KXJAMESBEARD-36-OC-NIK
Josh Niernberg
kalshi · KXJAMESBEARD-36-OC-JOS
David Standridge
kalshi · KXJAMESBEARD-36-OC-DAV
Tie
kalshi · KXJAMESBEARD-36-OC-TIE
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
Related readings
Matched from SimpleFunctions blog, opinions, technical guides, concepts, and learn pages.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: Which Prediction Market Should You Trade?
In-depth comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket for prediction market traders. Regulatory structure, liquidity, fees, API tooling, and cross-venue trading with SimpleFunctions.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: Mechanics, Fees, Regulation, Liquidity (2026)
Side-by-side comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket in 2026. Fee math, calibration data, withdrawal speed, and a decision tree for picking the right venue.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: A Developer's Comparison of APIs, Orderbooks, and Liquidity
Data-driven comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket APIs, orderbooks, rate limits, and liquidity. Code examples for building on both prediction markets.
Information Finance Has Arrived: A Material Map of Prediction Markets in Q2 2026
Combined Kalshi + Polymarket volume hit $66B in just four months of 2026 — already greater than the entire 2025 industry total. Bernstein projects $1T by 2030. Two venues hold 95% of US share. The distribution layer fragmented across nine retail surfaces. AI agents are 30% of Polymarket wallet activ
Liquidity Availability Is the Real Edge in Prediction Markets
Implied yield, cliff risk, and overround all describe what to trade. Liquidity Availability Score describes whether the orderbook can absorb the trade. Why LAS is the indicator that decides who actually books P&L.
Prediction Market Orderbook Analysis: Reading Depth, Spread, and Liquidity
How to read prediction market orderbooks. Binary settlement, spread-as-percentage, depth asymmetry, executable edge calculation, and cross-venue arbitrage analysis.
SimpleFunctions context
Index, screen, query, and monitor.
Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
Filter adjacent contracts by volume, expiry, IY, CRI, venue, and theme.
Event Probability API
Read 20% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
Prices, orderbooks, movement, heat, and liquidity indicators across venues.
World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
Map a thesis or exposure to candidate event markets and monitoring paths.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.