François Bayrou · 2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot
François Bayrou is priced at 21¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 8¢ bid, 32¢ ask, 24¢ spread. This outcome ranks #12 of 16 inside 2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot?.
Price history
21¢ current
−10¢Contract brief
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held in April 2027. Prior to the election, the French Constitutional Council is expected to publish the official list of candidates to be included on the ballot for the first round of this election. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual is included on the official candidate list for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If no such candidate list is published prior to the election, this market will resolve based on which candidates actually appear on the ballot when the election takes place. If no list is published and the specified election does not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official candidate list published by the French Constitutional Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Outcome
François Bayrou
Rank
#12 of 16
Leader
Jean-Luc Mélenchon 93¢
Range
5¢-93¢
Family volume
$44K
Identifier
0xe5ee6c17...dd1e
May 24, 2026, 10:38 PM UTC · 21m ago
Implied probability
Bid
8¢
Ask
32¢
Spread
24¢
24h volume
$632
Family rank
#12 of 16
16 outcomes · 2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot?
Closes
Apr 17, 2027
Family volume
$44K
Orderbook snapshot
8 / 32¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held in April 2027. Prior to the election, the French Constitutional Council is expected to publish the official list of candidates to be included on the ballot for the first round of this election. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual is included on the official candidate list for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If no such candidate list is published prior to the election, this market will resolve based on which candidates actually appear on the ballot when the election takes place. If no list is published and the specified election does not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official candidate list published by the French Constitutional Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Apr 17, 2027
Identifier
0xe5ee6c17…dd1e
Event family
2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$44K
Outcomes
16
Highest price
Jean-Luc Mélenchon 93¢
Current share
5%
Jean-Luc Mélenchon
polymarket · 0xc86ceab1f863c01c5c56939ce1d8d4a8d5b306dbbc5f22e8ab032b8da2498020
Édouard Philippe
polymarket · 0xb73b23b135bb40488931bbb9bde2a0a01c288c5896afb6d8baafcb3984840b35
Nathalie Arthaud
polymarket · 0x1c15916bb5d6edf0b8356181002ed964cd4e50da6a1a87b77d46f29ce73d4b63
Bruno Retailleau
polymarket · 0x3a00d0d616d344c8cb25209a1df1ff01aa99bcbd7cecf13926959357c8b95223
Dominique de Villepin
polymarket · 0xe90a8546106f5cc5642c08cd1601e7645d93fa5b21ff4bfd84b2d4aa13593d07
Gabriel Attal
polymarket · 0x888a5a06d9d4d27167bc1a68ff0e42041ea6dd8ea23cf68634347fcbdade2896
David Lisnard
polymarket · 0x3b47c2421039537e78187b98312abfd065e15e9dc04405f39dbf5c65379799ea
Raphaël Glucksmann
polymarket · 0x7e5a574615c94e01e4ac3279b2d4b25c8d3635bc1c622bcf73ce2a3c7407096f
François Hollande
polymarket · 0xec2ecbfc3000e9926526ed7ddc3fdf95a276318c561196eb755f7139d6204004
François Asselineau
polymarket · 0x0b3918ca6b169e13eecff0cddfe5d8a46bcee990da398c09d4d93145364bddfb
Sarah Knafo
polymarket · 0x2fbe9fc729efe57573097006d0be63d7e30d7db54f91b598e23d3b58374adb45
François Bayrou
polymarket · 0xe5ee6c17c3a43a0156a5e847a781b54b7cbb422ed5d006e01463ee1f8358dd1e
Marine Le Pen
polymarket · 0xa4a28a02e05eae793b93bd30cc7eb203525804435d5bcfe4889ffce8d94adcff
Juan Branco
polymarket · 0xd48be361d89a841204a05da851cdcfe66699d7fd813fbc1e24c8ba6deffba7cb
Matthieu Pigasse
polymarket · 0x719d9b3624af598ee62c011430d36ab69a70e620342a3b7ef57f3bc245d91b0a
Clémentine Autain
polymarket · 0xca7fbf986cf64a98d8fa4ef560f45429d0316bde18e4444a94d3981cd55c93f1
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
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SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
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