Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Portugal on 18 or 25 January 2026, with a possible second round on 8 or 15 February 2026. A second round will be held if no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. The two candidates with the greatest number of votes in the first round will advance to the second round. This market will resolve according to the listed candidates that qualify for the second round of this election. If the result of the first round of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No". If a candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Portuguese government, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (https://www.cne.pt/).
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
António José Seguro (IND) | 86.5% |
João Cotrim de Figueiredo | 34.5% |
Luís Marques Mendes (PSD) | 7.5% |
Humberto Correia | 0.4% |
António Filipe (PCP) | 0.4% |
Raul Perestrello (IND) | 0.3% |
CurrentTim Vieira (IND) | 0.3% |
Jorge Pinto | 0.1% |
Orlando Cruz (IND) | 0.1% |
Pedro Tinoco de Faria (IND) | 0.1% |
Manuel João Vieira | 0.1% |
Ângela Maryah (IND) | 0.1% |
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