The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 98th Academy Awards in 2026, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 22, followed by the ceremony on March 15, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed actor is nominated for the 98th Academy Award for Best Actor. If a actor is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Actor when the 2026 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No". If, for any reason, no nominations are declared by March 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
Timothée Chalamet | 99.7% |
Leonardo DiCaprio | 99.3% |
Wagner Moura | 94.0% |
Michael B. Jordan | 92.3% |
CurrentEthan Hawke | 75.0% |
Jesse Plemons | 32.5% |
Joel Edgerton | 13.5% |
Dwayne Johnson | 3.4% |
Lee Byung-hun | 3.0% |
George Clooney | 2.5% |
Brad Pitt | 2.0% |
Denzel Washington | 1.9% |
Jeremy Allen White | 1.9% |
Paul Mescal | 1.6% |
Brendan Fraser | 1.2% |
Joaquin Phoenix | 1.1% |
Matthew McConaughey | 0.7% |
Daniel Day-Lewis | 0.7% |
Willem Dafoe | 0.4% |
Colin Farrell | 0.3% |