The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 98th Academy Awards in 2026, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 22, followed by the ceremony on March 15, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed actress is nominated for the 98th Academy Award for Best Supporting Actress. If an actress is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Supporting Actress when the 2026 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No". If, for any reason, no nominations are declared by March 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
Teyana Taylor | 99.3% |
Amy Madigan | 96.0% |
Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas | 90.5% |
75.0% |
Ariana Grande | 54.5% |
Elle Fanning | 23.5% |
Gwyneth Paltrow | 6.9% |
Emily Blunt | 2.5% |
Hailee Steinfeld | 2.3% |
Thomasin McKenzie | 1.5% |
Regina Hall | 1.5% |
Glenn Close | 1.5% |
Angelina LookingGlass | 1.1% |
Greta Lee | 1.1% |
Samantha Morton | 1.0% |
Chase Infiniti | 0.9% |
Laura Dern | 0.7% |
Tilda Swinton | 0.6% |
Mari Yamamoto | 0.4% |
Kate Hudson | 0.4% |
CurrentAyo Edebiri | 0.3% |
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| 99.0% |
| $1,743 |
| Trade |
Kalshi | 3.0% | $180 | Trade |
Kalshi | 1.0% | $9 | Trade |
Kalshi | 99.0% | $4,568 | Trade |