Phil Scott · KXGOVVTNOMR-262
Phil Scott is priced at 80¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 75¢ bid, 82¢ ask, 7¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 2 inside KXGOVVTNOMR-262.
Price history
80¢ current
−11¢Contract brief
If Phil Scott wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 Vermont Governorship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Phil Scott
Rank
#1 of 2
Leader
Phil Scott 73¢
Range
19¢-73¢
Family volume
$14K
Identifier
KXGOVVTNOMR-262-PSCO
May 28, 2026, 6:08 PM UTC · 0m ago
Implied probability
Bid
75¢
Ask
82¢
Spread
7¢
24h volume
$13K
Family rank
#1 of 2
2 outcomes · KXGOVVTNOMR-262
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
Family volume
$14K
Orderbook snapshot
75 / 82¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Phil Scott wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 Vermont Governorship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
Identifier
KXGOVVTNOMR-262-PSCO
Cross-venue match
Similar contract on polymarket at 72¢, +8¢ versus this page.
Event family
KXGOVVTNOMR-262.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$14K
Outcomes
2
Highest price
Phil Scott 73¢
Current share
92%
Phil Scott
kalshi · KXGOVVTNOMR-262-PSCO
John Rodgers
kalshi · KXGOVVTNOMR-262-JROD
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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Event Probability API
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.