Phil Scott to win Vermont Governor Republican Primary
Phil Scott is priced at 72¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 66¢ bid, 74¢ ask, 8¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 2 inside Vermont Governor Republican Primary Winner.
Price history
72¢ current
−11¢Contract brief
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Vermont, scheduled to take place on August 11, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Vermont Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Vermont Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Outcome
Phil Scott
Rank
#1 of 2
Leader
Phil Scott 65¢
Range
22¢-65¢
Family volume
$6K
Identifier
0x02c23da2...53e9
May 28, 2026, 5:38 PM UTC · 20m ago
Implied probability
Bid
66¢
Ask
74¢
Spread
8¢
24h volume
$1K
Family rank
#1 of 2
2 outcomes · Vermont Governor Republican Primary Winner
Closes
Aug 11, 2026
Family volume
$6K
Orderbook snapshot
66 / 74¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Vermont, scheduled to take place on August 11, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Vermont Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Vermont Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Aug 11, 2026
Identifier
0x02c23da2…53e9
Cross-venue match
Similar contract on kalshi at 68¢, +4¢ versus this page.
Event family
Vermont Governor Republican Primary Winner.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$6K
Outcomes
2
Highest price
Phil Scott 65¢
Current share
52%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
Odds pages
Related prediction questions
Related readings
Matched from SimpleFunctions blog, opinions, technical guides, concepts, and learn pages.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: Which Prediction Market Should You Trade?
In-depth comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket for prediction market traders. Regulatory structure, liquidity, fees, API tooling, and cross-venue trading with SimpleFunctions.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: Mechanics, Fees, Regulation, Liquidity (2026)
Side-by-side comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket in 2026. Fee math, calibration data, withdrawal speed, and a decision tree for picking the right venue.
Liquidity Availability Is the Real Edge in Prediction Markets
Implied yield, cliff risk, and overround all describe what to trade. Liquidity Availability Score describes whether the orderbook can absorb the trade. Why LAS is the indicator that decides who actually books P&L.
Prediction Market Orderbook Analysis: Reading Depth, Spread, and Liquidity
How to read prediction market orderbooks. Binary settlement, spread-as-percentage, depth asymmetry, executable edge calculation, and cross-venue arbitrage analysis.
Your First Prediction Market Trade: End-to-End CLI Walkthrough
Step-by-step CLI tutorial for your first prediction market trade. Install, scan, create a thesis, find edges, check liquidity, place an order, and monitor — all from the command line.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: A Developer's Comparison of APIs, Orderbooks, and Liquidity
Data-driven comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket APIs, orderbooks, rate limits, and liquidity. Code examples for building on both prediction markets.
SimpleFunctions context
Index, screen, query, and monitor.
Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
Filter adjacent contracts by volume, expiry, IY, CRI, venue, and theme.
Event Probability API
Read 72% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
Prices, orderbooks, movement, heat, and liquidity indicators across venues.
World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
Map a thesis or exposure to candidate event markets and monitoring paths.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.