SimpleFunctions

Estral Esports · KXLOLGAME-26MAY261600PNGAEST

Estral Esports is priced at 78¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 39¢ bid, 87¢ ask, 48¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 2 inside KXLOLGAME-26MAY261600PNGAEST.

Price history

78¢ current

+65¢
25¢50¢75¢
May 23, 2026May 25, 2026

Contract brief

If Estral Esports wins the Circuito Desafiante 2026: paiN Gaming Academy vs. Estral Esports League of Legends match originally scheduled for May 26, 2026 at 4:00 PM EDT, then the market resolves to Yes.

Outcome

Estral Esports

Rank

#1 of 2

Leader

Estral Esports 45¢

Range

14¢-45¢

Family volume

$82

Identifier

KXLOLGAME-26MAY261600PNGAEST-EST

May 25, 2026, 12:38 AM UTC · 21m ago

Implied probability

78¢
Latest venue quote
May 25, 2026, 12:38 AM UTC · 21m ago

Bid

39¢

Ask

87¢

Spread

48¢

24h volume

$21

Family rank

#1 of 2

2 outcomes · KXLOLGAME-26MAY261600PNGAEST

Closes

Jun 9, 2026

Family volume

$82

Orderbook snapshot

39 / 87¢

Kalshi
48¢ spread
BidSize
39¢2.0K
31¢2.0K
30¢2.0K
20¢33
12¢100
AskSize
87¢50
88¢136
89¢100
90¢250
96¢200

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

If Estral Esports wins the Circuito Desafiante 2026: paiN Gaming Academy vs. Estral Esports League of Legends match originally scheduled for May 26, 2026 at 4:00 PM EDT, then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

Jun 9, 2026

Identifier

KXLOLGAME-26MAY261600PNGAEST-EST

SF Signal
SF Index
2603.88
Regime
neutral

Event family

KXLOLGAME-26MAY261600PNGAEST.

The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.

Total volume

$82

Outcomes

2

Highest price

Estral Esports 45¢

Current share

26%

Browse this series

League of Legends Match Winner Markets
Per-series collection — every live contract in the KXLOLGAME series on Kalshi, sorted by 24h volume.

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

2603.9%

IY (No)

2047.7%

Adj IY

2604%

CRI

1

RV

4461%

VR

7.78

Regime

neutral

Score

0.5

Full indicator table

2603.9%
2047.7%
Adj IY
2604%
1
RV
4461%
VR
7.78
IAR
2.2/h

Related readings

Matched from SimpleFunctions blog, opinions, technical guides, concepts, and learn pages.

Browse library
Opinioncomparison

Kalshi vs Polymarket: Mechanics, Fees, Regulation, Liquidity (2026)

Side-by-side comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket in 2026. Fee math, calibration data, withdrawal speed, and a decision tree for picking the right venue.

Blogmarkets

Kalshi vs Polymarket: Which Prediction Market Should You Trade?

In-depth comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket for prediction market traders. Regulatory structure, liquidity, fees, API tooling, and cross-venue trading with SimpleFunctions.

Blogmarkets

Prediction Market Orderbook Analysis: Reading Depth, Spread, and Liquidity

How to read prediction market orderbooks. Binary settlement, spread-as-percentage, depth asymmetry, executable edge calculation, and cross-venue arbitrage analysis.

Technicalguide

Kalshi vs Polymarket: A Developer's Comparison of APIs, Orderbooks, and Liquidity

Data-driven comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket APIs, orderbooks, rate limits, and liquidity. Code examples for building on both prediction markets.

Opinionanalysis

Liquidity Availability Is the Real Edge in Prediction Markets

Implied yield, cliff risk, and overround all describe what to trade. Liquidity Availability Score describes whether the orderbook can absorb the trade. Why LAS is the indicator that decides who actually books P&L.

Opinionanalysis

Implied Yield vs Raw Probability: Why Bond-Adjacent Prediction Markets Need a Different Lens

Why fixed-income-adjacent prediction-market contracts need to be priced in implied yield, not raw probability, with two real Kalshi Fed-decision contracts as a case study.

SimpleFunctions context

Index, screen, query, and monitor.

Open index

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.