SimpleFunctions

Markets · Series

League of Legends Match Winner Markets — 8 contracts, SF signal on every row.

8 live Kalshi contracts (78 audited). Median implied probability sits at 49%. 3 contracts moved 5cents+ in the last 24h (biggest: KXLOLGAME-26JUN081900G3VFUE-FUE +63c). Refreshed every 5 minutes.

Fit: mean deviation 24.0pp · cheapest KXLOLGAME-26JUN081900G3VFUE-G3V · richest KXLOLGAME-26JUN081900G3VFUE-FUE.

Analytics view (term structure, fitted hazard rate, per-bucket deviations): /yield-curves/KXLOLGAME.

Series JSON twin
GET/api/public/markets/series/KXLOLGAME
Term curve JSON
GET/api/public/yield-curves/KXLOLGAME
›example response
{
  "scope": {
    "type": "series",
    "slug": "KXLOLGAME",
    "label": "League of Legends Match Winner Markets"
  },
  "live": {
    "contractCount": 8,
    "volume24hSum": 4171.89,
    "hasThesisCount": 0
  },
  "termFit": {
    "seriesType": "unknown",
    "hazardRate": 0.02096
  }
}
By SimpleFunctions· Last verified 06 Jun 2026Methodology
Disagreement≥100-21.0
Vol Flow$4.2K-69%
min $3.9Kmax $113.2K
Breadth100%0.0pp
min -8%max 100%
Activity—
warming up — first reading at 20:00 UTC
May 30past 7d · UTCJun 6 · 18:23

Live contracts

8

Median IY

49¢

implied prob (YES)

24h volume

$4.2K

Days to catalyst

none

no scheduled catalyst

SF thesis coverage

0

Top mover

+63¢

KXLOLGAME-26JUN081900G3VFUE-FUE

League of Legends Match Winner Markets — liquidity topography (top 4 of 8 markets)

X = time-to-resolution (log). Y = 24h volume (log). Color = annualized %. Range: 912.4 → 5744.2%

$10$100$1,0001d7d5744.23328.3912.4

Hover for ticker detail; click to open the per-market page. full screener →

Top markets in League of Legends Match Winner Markets

Showing top 8 of 8

Sortable on every numeric column. Every row carries the SF indicator stack — bounded for readability, raw value on hover.

Will Cloud9 win the LYON vs. Cloud9 League of Legends match?: Cloud955¢
IY >999%Cliff 1Edge —RVol 156%Resid —$3.5K
Will LYON win the LYON vs. Cloud9 League of Legends match?: LYON42¢
IY >999%Cliff 1Edge —RVol —Resid —$349
Will Bilibili Gaming win the Bilibili Gaming vs. Anyone's Legend League of Legends match?: Bilibili Gaming72¢
IY 912%Cliff 3Edge —RVol —Resid —$210
Will Anyone's Legend win the Bilibili Gaming vs. Anyone's Legend League of Legends match?: Anyone's Legend29¢
IY >999%Cliff 2Edge —RVol —Resid —$114
Will Volticons win the Volticons vs. Golden Lions League of Legends match?: Volticons30¢
IY >999%Cliff 2Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Will Fuego win the G3V E-sports vs. Fuego League of Legends match?: Fuego80¢
IY 565%Cliff 4Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$0
Will G3V E-sports win the G3V E-sports vs. Fuego League of Legends match?: G3V E-sports13¢
IY >999%Cliff 7Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$0
Will Golden Lions win the Volticons vs. Golden Lions League of Legends match?: Golden Lions67¢
IY >999%Cliff 2Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
8 contracts total · sort any columnFull set on /screen →

Biggest movers, 24h, in League of Legends Match Winner Markets

From market_changes
23h agoKalshi
Will Fuego win the G3V E-sports vs. Fuego League of Legends match?: Fuego
79¢16→79 (+63)
open →
19h agoKalshi
Will Golden Lions win the Volticons vs. Golden Lions League of Legends match?: Golden Lions
63¢12→63 (+51)
open →
19h agoKalshi
Will Volticons win the Volticons vs. Golden Lions League of Legends match?: Volticons
27¢12→27 (+15)
open →

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 06 Jun 2026 19:38:24 GMT.

Term-structure analytics

Probability vs tenor curve and per-bucket deviation analysis. /yield-curves/KXLOLGAME →

Category view

All Kalshi Sports markets. /markets/category/sports →

Venue view

Everything on Kalshi. /markets/venue/kalshi →

JSON API

Same data, machine-readable. twin endpoint →