SimpleFunctions

Markets · Series

League of Legends Match Winner Markets — pricing the ladder, 34 thresholds.

34 live Kalshi contracts (78 audited). Median implied probability sits at 39%. 77 contracts moved 5cents+ in the last 24h (biggest: KXLOLGAME-26MAY261100OABOM-BOM +68c). Refreshed every 5 minutes.

Analytics view (term structure, fitted hazard rate, per-bucket deviations): /yield-curves/KXLOLGAME.

Series JSON twin
GET/api/public/markets/series/KXLOLGAME
Term curve JSON
GET/api/public/yield-curves/KXLOLGAME
›example response
{
  "scope": {
    "type": "series",
    "slug": "KXLOLGAME",
    "label": "League of Legends Match Winner Markets"
  },
  "live": {
    "contractCount": 34,
    "volume24hSum": 12471.95,
    "hasThesisCount": 0
  },
  "termFit": null
}
By SimpleFunctions· Last verified 24 May 2026Methodology
Disagreement≥100
Vol Flow$12.5K+39%
min $4.1Kmax $23.7K
Breadth17%-9.3pp
min 0%max 58%
Activity—
warming up — first reading at 01:15 UTC
May 17past 6d · UTCMay 24 · 00:23

Live contracts

34

Median IY

39¢

implied prob (YES)

24h volume

$12.5K

Days to catalyst

none

no scheduled catalyst

SF thesis coverage

0

Bucket count

32

thresholds fitted

Threshold ladder — 34 contracts at one resolution

Mean fit deviation 1.6pp
0%25%50%75%100%1cdfsurvivalimplied EV

Bars ordered by threshold ascending. Pink = cheapest vs hazard fit; purple = richest. Solid emerald = cumulative implied probability; dashed zinc = survival; dashed amber = implied EV.

Top markets in League of Legends Match Winner Markets

Showing top 20 of 34

Sortable on every numeric column. Every row carries the SF indicator stack — bounded for readability, raw value on hover.

Will Nongshim Red Force win the Nongshim Red Force vs. Hanwha Life Esports League of Legends match?: Nongshim Red Force13¢
IY >999%Cliff 7Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$7.0K
Will Hanwha Life Esports win the Nongshim Red Force vs. Hanwha Life Esports League of Legends match?: Hanwha Life Esports84¢
IY 452%Cliff 5Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$1.9K
Will Team Vitality win the Movistar KOI vs. Team Vitality League of Legends match?: Team Vitality42¢
IY >999%Cliff 1Edge —RVol —Resid —$1.2K
Will LYON win the Team Liquid vs. LYON League of Legends match?: LYON57¢
IY >999%Cliff 1Edge —RVol 191%Resid —$935
Will Team Liquid win the Team Liquid vs. LYON League of Legends match?: Team Liquid42¢
IY >999%Cliff 1Edge —RVol 505%Resid —$527
Will Dplus KIA win the Dplus KIA vs. T1 League of Legends match?: Dplus KIA26¢
IY >999%Cliff 3Edge —RVol 891%Resid —$334
Will Movistar KOI win the Movistar KOI vs. Team Vitality League of Legends match?: Movistar KOI58¢
IY >999%Cliff 1Edge —RVol 213%Resid —$201
Will T1 win the Dplus KIA vs. T1 League of Legends match?: T170¢
IY >999%Cliff 2Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$119
Will Hanwha Life Esports Challengers win the Hanwha Life Esports Challengers vs. Dplus KIA Challengers League of Legends match?: Hanwha Life Esports Challengers17¢
IY >999%Cliff 5Edge —RVol 496%Resid —$87
Will RED Canids win the FURIA Esports vs. RED Canids League of Legends match?: RED Canids47¢
IY >999%Cliff 1Edge —RVol 337%Resid —$82
Will FURIA Esports win the FURIA Esports vs. RED Canids League of Legends match?: FURIA Esports50¢
IY >999%Cliff 1Edge —RVol 246%Resid —$67
Will BOMBA Team win the Orbit Anonymo vs. BOMBA Team League of Legends match?: BOMBA Team80¢
IY 550%Cliff 4Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$14
Will T1 Academy win the T1 Academy vs. BNK FearX Youth League of Legends match?: T1 Academy75¢
IY 797%Cliff 3Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$5
Will Orbit Anonymo win the Orbit Anonymo vs. BOMBA Team League of Legends match?: Orbit Anonymo13¢
IY >999%Cliff 7Edge —RVol 947%Resid —$4
Will E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS win the E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS vs. Eintracht Spandau League of Legends match?: E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS19¢
IY >999%Cliff 4Edge —RVol 807%Resid —$3
Will G2 NORD win the G2 NORD vs. Berlin International Gaming League of Legends match?: G2 NORD24¢
IY >999%Cliff 3Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Will Forsaken win the Forsaken vs. Orzel Barczaca Esports League of Legends match?: Forsaken13¢
IY >999%Cliff 7Edge —RVol 823%Resid —$0
Will Estral Esports win the paiN Gaming Academy vs. Estral Esports League of Legends match?: Estral Esports31¢
IY >999%Cliff 2Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$0
Will paiN Gaming Academy win the paiN Gaming Academy vs. Estral Esports League of Legends match?: paiN Gaming Academy12¢
IY >999%Cliff 7Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Will Gen.G win the Hanwha Life Esports vs. Gen.G League of Legends match?: Gen.G53¢
IY >999%Cliff 1Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
34 contracts total · sort any columnFull set on /screen →

Biggest movers, 24h, in League of Legends Match Winner Markets

From market_changes
16h agoKalshi
Will BOMBA Team win the Orbit Anonymo vs. BOMBA Team League of Legends match?: BOMBA Team
80¢12→80 (+68)
open →
12h agoKalshi
Will BOMBA Team win the Orbit Anonymo vs. BOMBA Team League of Legends match?: BOMBA Team
12¢80→12 (-68)
open →
15h agoKalshi
Will BOMBA Team win the Orbit Anonymo vs. BOMBA Team League of Legends match?: BOMBA Team
12¢80→12 (-68)
open →
14h agoKalshi
Will BOMBA Team win the Orbit Anonymo vs. BOMBA Team League of Legends match?: BOMBA Team
80¢13→80 (+67)
open →
19h agoKalshi
Will Estral Esports win the paiN Gaming Academy vs. Estral Esports League of Legends match?: Estral Esports
77¢14→77 (+63)
open →
17h agoKalshi
Will DRX Challengers win the DRX Challengers vs. OKSavingsBank BRION Challengers League of Legends match?: DRX Challengers
12¢66→12 (-54)
open →
36m agoKalshi
Will Berlin International Gaming win the G2 NORD vs. Berlin International Gaming League of Legends match?: Berlin International Gaming
66¢12→66 (+54)
open →
17h agoKalshi
Will DRX Challengers win the DRX Challengers vs. OKSavingsBank BRION Challengers League of Legends match?: DRX Challengers
65¢12→65 (+53)
open →

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 24 May 2026 00:38:23 GMT.

Term-structure analytics

Probability vs tenor curve and per-bucket deviation analysis. /yield-curves/KXLOLGAME →

Category view

All Kalshi Sports markets. /markets/category/sports →

Venue view

Everything on Kalshi. /markets/venue/kalshi →

JSON API

Same data, machine-readable. twin endpoint →