Will Rahm Emanuel be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028?
KXPRESNOMD-28-REMA · closes Nov 7, 2028 · 939 days remaining
Price
Last
4¢
Bid
3¢
Ask
4¢
Spread
1¢
24h Volume
$15,781.85
Open Interest
$2,717,142.82
Cross-venue · polymarket
Same outcome trades on Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028: Rahm Emanuel · match confidence 1.00 · close-time delta 15h
Counterpart price
—
This price
4¢
Spread (this − cp)
—
Counterpart IY
—
Indicator Stack
| Indicator | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| IY (Yes) | 1257.0% | Annualized return if held to expiry, computed from the YES side |
| IY (No) | 1.2% | Annualized return on the NO side |
| CRI | 32 | Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market is approaching resolution |
| EE | — | Event Overround — sum of YES prices across sibling outcomes |
| Overround | -0.3% | Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family |
| LAS | 0.33 | Liquidity Availability Score — null when ticker is outside the warm cron top 500 |
| CVR | — | Contagion Velocity Rate — null when not in warm cron |
| RV | — | Realized Volatility — annualized stddev of returns from 48h price history |
| VR | — | Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead |
| IAR | — | Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h window) |
| Adj IY | 419% | Risk-Adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets (low VR) and high friction (high LAS) |
| Residual VR | — | VR minus expected VR from scheduled catalysts. Positive = market knows something calendar doesn't |
7-Day History
6 indicator snapshots · 25 regime snapshots
Regime Snapshot
Score
0.341
Label
neutral
Spread
1¢
Computed
4/13/2026, 5:59:33 PM
About this market
If Rahm Emanuel wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Democratic party, then the market resolves to Yes.
How to trade
View on kalshi: external link →
Or with the sf CLI: sf trade KXPRESNOMD-28-REMA yes 100