Who will recognize Palestine?

This market is pricing an extremely unlikely outcome for Greece specifically recognizing Palestine, with the Yes contract at just 8¢ implying only an 8% probability over the next 259 days. The 1,423.9% implied yield on the Yes side is extraordinarily high but reflects the minimal capital required to achieve outsized returns on a low-probability event, while the $0 24-hour volume and $3,665 open interest indicate severe illiquidity that makes the price potentially unreliable. The 3¢ spread is notably wide relative to the 8¢ price, and the high cliff risk index of 10 suggests significant binary outcome risk, though the recent uptick from 8¢ to 9¢ over seven days warrants monitoring for whether this reflects genuine information or merely thin-market noise.

Resolution rules

If Greece recognizes Palestine before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

Regime

Trade