Who will recognize Palestine
Leader sits at 12% across 12 bound outcomes, runner-up at 11%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
New Zealand
Outcomes
12
winner-take-all
Runner-up
11¢
The Netherlands
Spread
1pp
contested
24h volume
$166
thin orderbook
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
198 days
Venue
Kalshi
12 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Who will recognize Palestine
Who will recognize Palestine?: The Netherlands
KXRECOGPALESTINE-27-DUT
Who will recognize Palestine?: USA
KXRECOGPALESTINE-27-USA
Who will recognize Palestine?: Switzerland
KXRECOGPALESTINE-27-SWI
Who will recognize Palestine?: Singapore
KXRECOGPALESTINE-27-SIN
Who will recognize Palestine?: Panama
KXRECOGPALESTINE-27-PAN
Who will recognize Palestine?: New Zealand
KXRECOGPALESTINE-27-NZ
Who will recognize Palestine?: Japan
KXRECOGPALESTINE-27-JAP
Who will recognize Palestine?: Italy
KXRECOGPALESTINE-27-ITA
Who will recognize Palestine?: Greece
KXRECOGPALESTINE-27-GRE
Who will recognize Palestine?: Germany
KXRECOGPALESTINE-27-GER
Who will recognize Palestine?: Finland
KXRECOGPALESTINE-27-FIN
Who will recognize Palestine?: Austria
KXRECOGPALESTINE-27-AUS
Analysis
This probability reflects the chance that New Zealand will formally recognize Palestine as a sovereign state before the end of 2026. Currently priced at 16%, the estimate is substantially higher than comparable European nations (Netherlands 10%, Greece 14%), suggesting market participants view New Zealand as the most likely immediate recognizer. The level would rise if the New Zealand government signals diplomatic support or if regional developments accelerate recognition timelines; it would fall if the government publicly distances itself from the issue or the window closes without action. Key uncertainty centers on whether New Zealand's next parliamentary session includes Palestine recognition debates or whether international events (ongoing Middle East developments, UN votes) create political momentum for formal recognition before year-end.
- ›New Zealand's current government composition and its stated positions on Middle Eastern diplomatic recognition as of mid-2026
- ›Recent New Zealand parliamentary debate activity or ministerial statements regarding Palestine recognition within the past 12 months
- ›Timing of upcoming New Zealand parliamentary sessions and foreign policy vote schedules before December 2026
- ›Pattern of other countries' recognition announcements—whether momentum accelerates recognition globally or stalls
- ›UN General Assembly or other multilateral voting outcomes that could influence domestic political support for recognition in New Zealand
What moved the line
- Jun 11The Netherlands↓3pp10→7¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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