Who will recognize Palestine
Leader sits at 7% across 5 bound outcomes, runner-up at 6%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
The Netherlands
Outcomes
5
winner-take-all
Runner-up
6¢
Japan
Spread
1pp
contested
24h volume
$22
thin orderbook
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
101 days
Venue
Kalshi
5 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Who will recognize Palestine
Who will recognize Palestine?: Italy
KXRECOGPALESTINE-27-ITA
Who will recognize Palestine?: Japan
KXRECOGPALESTINE-27-JAP
Who will recognize Palestine?: The Netherlands
KXRECOGPALESTINE-27-DUT
Who will recognize Palestine?: Germany
KXRECOGPALESTINE-27-GER
Who will recognize Palestine?: New Zealand
KXRECOGPALESTINE-27-NZ
Analysis
This probability estimates the likelihood that New Zealand will formally recognize Palestine as a sovereign state within a specified timeframe. The 10% leader price reflects relatively low near-term expectations compared to other potential recognizing countries like Italy at 8%. Recognition depends on political shifts within New Zealand's government, diplomatic pressure from regional actors, and evolving international consensus on Palestinian statehood. The main catalyst would be a change in New Zealand's ruling coalition or a significant diplomatic initiative—such as a major UN resolution or regional peace agreement—that makes recognition politically feasible. Current low trading volumes on most contracts suggest limited market confidence in imminent recognition across these nations.
- ›New Zealand's current government coalition composition and stated position on Palestine recognition as of mid-2026
- ›Comparative recognition rates among democracies listed—Italy's higher contract price (8¢) suggests market sees it as more likely to recognize first
- ›Trading volume concentrated on Italy ($103 24h) versus zero volume on most others, indicating Italy is the active focal point for this outcome category
- ›Absence of scheduled parliamentary votes, referendums, or announced diplomatic initiatives across these five countries that would force recognition decisions
- ›Timeline length of the resolution window—recognition probability varies substantially depending on whether the question resolves in months versus years
What moved the line
- Sep 18New Zealand↓3pp5→2¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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