Will the spot price of Solana be above $300.00 before Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00 AM ET?
Prediction markets currently give a 7% probability that Will the spot price of Solana be above $300.00 before Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00 AM ET?. This contract trades at 7¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. The 13% probability pricing appears significantly undervalued given Solana's recent volatility and the 2-year timeframe, with the Yes position offering an extraordinary 2676% implied yield despite only requiring SOL to reach $300—a level the asset has approached multiple times historically.
Analysis
The 13% probability pricing appears significantly undervalued given Solana's recent volatility and the 2-year timeframe, with the Yes position offering an extraordinary 2676% implied yield despite only requiring SOL to reach $300—a level the asset has approached multiple times historically. The extremely thin 24-hour volume of $15 against $11.7k open interest and the sharp 7-day price decline from 8¢ to 6¢ suggest low liquidity and potential mispricing, though the elevated realized volatility of 12,033% and cliff risk index of 19 indicate genuine uncertainty about tail outcomes. With 259 days remaining and a neutral regime, this market appears to be pricing in either extreme skepticism about Solana's recovery prospects or suffering from illiquidity-driven undervaluation.
Also on polymarket at 8¢(Δ -1¢)
Resolution rules
If the spot price of Solana is above $300.00 between Jan 1, 2026 and 12:00 AM on Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXSOLMAXY-27JAN01-300 yes 100