Will the spot price of Solana be above $150.00 before Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00 AM ET
Leader sits at 29% across 8 bound outcomes, runner-up at 19%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above $150.00
Outcomes
8
winner-take-all
Runner-up
19¢
Above $160.00
Spread
10pp
contested
24h volume
$199
thin orderbook
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
103 days
Venue
Kalshi
8 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the spot price of Solana be above $
Will the spot price of Solana be above $150.00 before Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00 AM ET?: Above $150.00
KXSOLMAXY-27JAN01-150
Will the spot price of Solana be above $180.00 before Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00 AM ET?: Above $180.00
KXSOLMAXY-27JAN01-180
Will the spot price of Solana be above $300.00 before Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00 AM ET?: Above $300.00
KXSOLMAXY-27JAN01-300
Will the spot price of Solana be above $250.00 before Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00 AM ET?: Above $250.00
KXSOLMAXY-27JAN01-250
Will the spot price of Solana be above $200.00 before Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00 AM ET?: Above $200.00
KXSOLMAXY-27JAN01-200
Will the spot price of Solana be above $190.00 before Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00 AM ET?: Above $190.00
KXSOLMAXY-27JAN01-190
Will the spot price of Solana be above $170.00 before Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00 AM ET?: Above $170.00
KXSOLMAXY-27JAN01-170
Will the spot price of Solana be above $160.00 before Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00 AM ET?: Above $160.00
KXSOLMAXY-27JAN01-160
Analysis
Markets currently assess a 21% probability that Solana's spot price will exceed $150 before year-end 2027, based on contracts traded on Kalshi. This reflects pessimism about near-term price appreciation, with traders pricing in only modest upside over the next 4.5 months. The probability is driven by Solana's recent trading range and macroeconomic conditions affecting crypto broadly. Factors that could shift this level include major changes in institutional adoption, shifts in overall crypto market sentiment tied to Bitcoin or Ethereum movements, regulatory announcements, or technical network developments. The resolution depends on actual spot prices on January 1, 2027 at midnight ET—a hard deadline with no ambiguity. Notably, contracts at higher price thresholds ($180, $190) trade at significantly lower prices (8-10 cents), suggesting markets see a steep climb from current levels as unlikely within the timeframe.
- ›Solana's current spot price relative to $150 and historical volatility in comparable timeframes
- ›Trading volume concentration at the $150 level ($42 24h vol) versus higher thresholds ($180 at $496 vol) suggests price discovery is weak at extreme outcomes
- ›The 4.5-month timeframe excludes typical long-duration catalysts like major upgrades or institutional infrastructure launches
- ›Bitcoin and Ethereum price movements typically correlate with Solana; macro sentiment shifts would be a primary driver of probability changes
- ›The contract structure (winner-take-all across 7 price tiers) means runner-up outcomes at lower prices ($160 at 13%) indicate substantial downside risk priced in alongside the $150 leader
What moved the line
- Sep 17Above $150.00↓11pp27→16¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 18Above $150.00↑7pp16→23¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 19Above $150.00↑6pp23→29¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 17Above $180.00↑5pp8→13¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 17Above $190.00↑4pp9→13¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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