Will the spot price of Solana be above $150.00 before Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00 AM ET
Leader sits at 17% across 7 bound outcomes, runner-up at 9%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above $150.00
Outcomes
7
winner-take-all
Runner-up
9¢
Above $170.00
Spread
8pp
contested
24h volume
$148
thin orderbook
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
149 days
Venue
Kalshi
7 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the spot price of Solana be above $
Will the spot price of Solana be above $170.00 before Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00 AM ET?: Above $170.00
KXSOLMAXY-27JAN01-170
Will the spot price of Solana be above $150.00 before Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00 AM ET?: Above $150.00
KXSOLMAXY-27JAN01-150
Will the spot price of Solana be above $250.00 before Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00 AM ET?: Above $250.00
KXSOLMAXY-27JAN01-250
Will the spot price of Solana be above $200.00 before Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00 AM ET?: Above $200.00
KXSOLMAXY-27JAN01-200
Will the spot price of Solana be above $190.00 before Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00 AM ET?: Above $190.00
KXSOLMAXY-27JAN01-190
Will the spot price of Solana be above $180.00 before Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00 AM ET?: Above $180.00
KXSOLMAXY-27JAN01-180
Will the spot price of Solana be above $160.00 before Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00 AM ET?: Above $160.00
KXSOLMAXY-27JAN01-160
Analysis
This prediction estimates a 23% chance that Solana's spot price will exceed $150 before the end of 2026—roughly 8 months away. The low probability reflects current market conditions, with Solana trading substantially below this threshold. Price movements would depend primarily on broad cryptocurrency market sentiment, institutional adoption developments, and macroeconomic factors affecting risk assets. The probability could shift significantly based on major announcements, regulatory clarity, or shifts in the risk-on/risk-off environment that typically influence altcoin valuations. Resolution depends on spot price data at any point before January 1, 2027 at midnight ET, meaning a single spike would settle the contract as "Above $150.00."
- ›Current Solana price relative to $150 target and volatility patterns over the past 12 months
- ›Bitcoin and broader cryptocurrency market correlation—altcoins typically follow BTC price movements and sentiment shifts
- ›Regulatory developments or major institutional adoption announcements that could drive capital inflows into Solana ecosystem
- ›Macroeconomic factors including interest rate policy and risk-asset appetite, which influence speculative cryptocurrency trading
- ›Time remaining (approximately 8 months) and historical price range volatility for Solana, determining plausibility of 100%+ appreciation
What moved the line
- Aug 1Above $150.00↑4pp15→19¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 31Above $150.00↓3pp18→15¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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