SimpleFunctions
Winner-take-all answer·8 source contracts·Kalshi 8·refreshed just now·Closes Jan 1, 2027 · 198d

Will the spot price of Solana be above $150.00 before Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00 AM ET

Leader sits at 23% across 8 bound outcomes, runner-up at 18%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.

Leader probability

23%

Above $150.00

runner-up 18¢leader 23¢

Outcomes

8

winner-take-all

Runner-up

18¢

Above $160.00

Spread

5pp

contested

24h volume

$194

thin orderbook

Closes

Jan 1, 2027

198 days

Venue

Kalshi

8 bound

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayAbove $150.00: 24% (30 days, 28 points)Above $150.00: 24% on 2026-06-16Above $160.00: 20% (30 days, 30 points)Above $160.00: 20% on 2026-06-16Above $170.00: 13% (30 days, 21 points)Above $170.00: 13% on 2026-06-15
Above $150.0024¢Above $160.0020¢Above $170.0013¢
Top 3 candidates by current price · 30d

Bracket family

How the bracket ladder is priced.

Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.

Analysis

This prediction estimates a 23% chance that Solana's spot price will exceed $150 before the end of 2026—roughly 8 months away. The low probability reflects current market conditions, with Solana trading substantially below this threshold. Price movements would depend primarily on broad cryptocurrency market sentiment, institutional adoption developments, and macroeconomic factors affecting risk assets. The probability could shift significantly based on major announcements, regulatory clarity, or shifts in the risk-on/risk-off environment that typically influence altcoin valuations. Resolution depends on spot price data at any point before January 1, 2027 at midnight ET, meaning a single spike would settle the contract as "Above $150.00."

  • Current Solana price relative to $150 target and volatility patterns over the past 12 months
  • Bitcoin and broader cryptocurrency market correlation—altcoins typically follow BTC price movements and sentiment shifts
  • Regulatory developments or major institutional adoption announcements that could drive capital inflows into Solana ecosystem
  • Macroeconomic factors including interest rate policy and risk-asset appetite, which influence speculative cryptocurrency trading
  • Time remaining (approximately 8 months) and historical price range volatility for Solana, determining plausibility of 100%+ appreciation

What moved the line

  • Jun 13Above $160.009pp514¢ · Kalshi
  • Jun 15Above $170.005pp813¢ · Kalshi
  • Jun 13Above $190.005pp510¢ · Kalshi
  • Jun 13Above $150.004pp1519¢ · Kalshi
  • Jun 13Above $180.004pp59¢ · Kalshi

Recently closed in bitcoin

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

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