Larger Margin of Victory: Mamdani vs Prop 50?

This market will resolve to "Mamdani" if the Democratic candidate’s margin of victory in the 2025 New York City Mayor election is greater than the margin of victory for the Democratic-backed "Yes" position in the 2025 California referendum on Proposition 50. This market will resolve to "Proposition 50" if the margin of victory in the California referendum is greater than in the New York City Mayor election. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the difference in percentage points between the Democratic and Republican vote shares in the mayoral election and between the “Yes” and “No” vote shares in the referendum. If the Democratic candidate and the “Yes” position fail to win, this market will resolve to the contest in which they lost by the smaller margin. If the margin of victory is identical, or if the results of either election are not confirmed by July 31, 2026, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to the official election authority responsible for each election (the New York City Board of Elections and the California Secretary of State).

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