Lautaro Martinez · Ballon d'Or Winner 2026
Lautaro Martinez is priced at 2¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 2¢ bid, 3¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #8 of 16 inside Ballon d'Or Winner 2026.
Price history
2¢ current
−48¢Contract brief
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ballon d’Or. If no 2026 Ballon d’Or winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market is official information from France Football (https://www.francefootball.fr/).
Outcome
Lautaro Martinez
Rank
#8 of 16
Leader
Harry Kane 25¢
Range
0¢-25¢
Family volume
$3.2M
Identifier
0xc6421c3e...c431
May 24, 2026, 2:54 AM UTC · 0m ago
Implied probability
Bid
2¢
Ask
3¢
Spread
1¢
24h volume
$545
Family rank
#8 of 16
16 outcomes · Ballon d'Or Winner 2026
Closes
Oct 31, 2026
Family volume
$3.2M
Orderbook snapshot
2 / 3¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ballon d’Or. If no 2026 Ballon d’Or winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market is official information from France Football (https://www.francefootball.fr/).
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Oct 31, 2026
Identifier
0xc6421c3e…c431
Event family
Ballon d'Or Winner 2026.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$3.2M
Outcomes
16
Highest price
Harry Kane 25¢
Current share
1%
Harry Kane
polymarket · 0x12dc2b61723b2a54fc1947a307389b5f32038e7a29a0e936ad1fe410b969d06a
Ousmane Dembélé
polymarket · 0x26f410f7518fa199678ef57f02637fc88be9b3b593346b00946d7ea451f4521b
Lamine Yamal
polymarket · 0xa34edb6c898232378a9cc08744842df2cd89d278ba45b012bed3ac10c7241c4d
Declan Rice
polymarket · 0x36d6b5a0d75f0759c747b41afb84d86fff70db2b2eebaeb3bea92fe444de934f
Kylian Mbappé
polymarket · 0x87091dc5932f015d80c40e71e47cb043c3f8b6098484eb5bc3943cf35ee9afc1
Michael Olise
polymarket · 0x3d5321854a1571f6f9f27fd6a87fbefdde464260a19b03404d2eb9d97f3d2b06
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia
polymarket · 0x9f50939c394897a984d04522b61cf62da5aaa7fc50a2b3da362accaeffe38078
Cristiano Ronaldo
polymarket · 0xba753e4c9435984f5e286c3fd3480c41f0205d040f7455ef0c7e9c4e163f3892
Lautaro Martinez
polymarket · 0xc6421c3ee02a46dfff6a860fd1649ad81b168f781842ab732fd4dd6791d6c431
Vinícius Júnior
polymarket · 0x92546439b64eb75474e85860546f9b46d5965be9f6b39d834b5d952f25137ec0
Pedri
polymarket · 0x1eac56852d62aec470b9151ac79496384afc0cb0b8a1be56aee07540765f4628
Erling Haaland
polymarket · 0xc89266786402aaabe78111eb91c6764d86857bbc4427c82b91d60a5ef69a70d0
Mohamed Salah
polymarket · 0xf6f3ab86ba22d9d362e2429701722f15115e4a10a3d790c18f88df2ddff7f4ed
Jude Bellingham
polymarket · 0xaa95b8ce7b2c7f04102c173447ef24a8724bed88687442ab8742a73aa7bafeff
Cole Palmer
polymarket · 0xd5a0dc324b2c8af715850bc34fe2b1089e7627103b92a9ec7aba79cbf9117943
Dominik Szoboszlai
polymarket · 0x2b15aefb60135abd51882bcaa199162a773b58a901be68ad41fc86c87fa56551
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.432
Observability
medium
Event type
unknown
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.