SimpleFunctions

Increase · Bank of Israel Decision in May

Increase is priced at 1¢ midpoint on Polymarket. Current book: 0¢ bid, 1¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #3 of 3 inside Bank of Israel Decision in May?.

Price history

1¢ current

5¢
0¢25¢50¢
Apr 25, 2026May 23, 2026

Contract brief

This market will resolve according to the change in the Bank of Israel Interest Rate resulting from the Bank of Israel’s May monetary policy decision, relative to the level it was prior to this decision. The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Israel after its May 25, 2026 monetary policy decision, as listed on the official Bank of Israel interest rate decision schedule: https://www.boi.org.il/en/economic-roles/monetary-policy/interest-rate-announcement-dates-2025-2026/# This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Israel's announcement of their May 25, 2026 decision with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the Bank of Israel Interest Rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.

Outcome

Increase

Rank

#3 of 3

Leader

Decrease 77¢

Range

0¢-77¢

Family volume

$73K

Identifier

0x612771bf...5b81

May 24, 2026, 6:59 AM UTC · 0m ago

Implied probability

1¢
Bid/ask midpoint
May 24, 2026, 6:59 AM UTC · 0m ago

Bid

Ask

Spread

24h volume

$14K

Family rank

#3 of 3

3 outcomes · Bank of Israel Decision in May?

Closes

May 25, 2026

Family volume

$73K

Orderbook snapshot

0 / 1¢

Polymarket
1¢ spread
BidSize
0¢4.9K
AskSize
2¢45
2¢98
3¢21
100¢500
100¢406
100¢75
100¢8.5K
100¢5.3K

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

This market will resolve according to the change in the Bank of Israel Interest Rate resulting from the Bank of Israel’s May monetary policy decision, relative to the level it was prior to this decision. The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Israel after its May 25, 2026 monetary policy decision, as listed on the official Bank of Israel interest rate decision schedule: https://www.boi.org.il/en/economic-roles/monetary-policy/interest-rate-announcement-dates-2025-2026/# This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Israel's announcement of their May 25, 2026 decision with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the Bank of Israel Interest Rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.

Venue

Polymarket

Closes

May 25, 2026

Identifier

0x612771bf…5b81

SF Signal
Regime
neutral

Event family

Bank of Israel Decision in May.

The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.

Total volume

$73K

Outcomes

3

Highest price

Decrease 77¢

Current share

46%

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

Regime

neutral

Score

0.5

Observability

high

Event type

data_release

Related readings

Matched from SimpleFunctions blog, opinions, technical guides, concepts, and learn pages.

Browse library
Opinioncomparison

Kalshi vs Polymarket: Mechanics, Fees, Regulation, Liquidity (2026)

Side-by-side comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket in 2026. Fee math, calibration data, withdrawal speed, and a decision tree for picking the right venue.

Blogmacro

Federal Reserve Interest Rates 2026: What Inflation Prediction Markets Are Really Pricing In

Deep‑dive on Federal Reserve interest rates in 2026: SEP projections, inflation and unemployment paths, QT endgame, global central bank context, and what prediction markets are pricing for Fed cuts, inflation, and recession—plus actionable trading setups.

Blogmacro

Fed Rate Cuts 2026: What $200M in Prediction Market Volume Is Telling Us

Fed rate prediction market analysis for 2026. Meeting-by-meeting probabilities, comparison with CME futures, cross-market signals, tail risk pricing, and historical accuracy.

Technicalguide

Kalshi vs Polymarket: A Developer's Comparison of APIs, Orderbooks, and Liquidity

Data-driven comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket APIs, orderbooks, rate limits, and liquidity. Code examples for building on both prediction markets.

Blogmarkets

Kalshi vs Polymarket: Which Prediction Market Should You Trade?

In-depth comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket for prediction market traders. Regulatory structure, liquidity, fees, API tooling, and cross-venue trading with SimpleFunctions.

Bloggeopolitics

US Oil Sanctions on Venezuela, Iran, and Russia in 2026: How Prediction Markets Are Pricing the Next Shock

A deep-dive into US oil sanctions on Venezuela, Iran, and Russia heading into 2026—covering Trump 2.0 policy, secondary sanctions, shadow fleets, global oil balances, European energy security, India/China behavior, and how prediction markets are pricing the next shock.

SimpleFunctions context

Index, screen, query, and monitor.

Open index

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.