Best AI in May 2026?
This contract is priced at 1¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 0¢ bid, 1¢ ask, 1¢ spread.
Implied probability
Event outcomes
8
Family volume
$35K
Best sibling
ChatGPT 1¢
Ticker
KXLLM1-26MAY16-AMAZ
Market snapshot
Amazon Nova in market context.
This page tracks the Kalshi contract for Best AI in May 2026?. The displayed quote is 1¢ from the latest venue quote. The cached market record reports 24h volume of $367. In the Best AI in May 2026 family, this outcome ranks #3 of 8 by current quote across 8 sibling outcomes. The indicator bundle was refreshed May 11, 2026, 9:31 PM UTC.
Outcome
Amazon Nova
Family rank
#3 of 8
Venue
Kalshi
Current quote
1¢
Quote source
Latest venue quote
Timing
Listed until May 16, 2026
24h volume
$367
Family context
8 outcomes · Best AI in May 2026
Quote range
1¢-97¢
Family leader
Claude 97¢
Last updated
May 11, 2026, 9:31 PM UTC · 0m ago
Venue identifier: KXLLM1-26MAY16-AMAZ. Family volume: $35K.
Price history
1¢ current
−1¢Orderbook snapshot
0 / 1¢
Contract terms
Resolution, venue, and identifiers.
Resolution rules
If Amazon has the top-ranked LLM on May 16, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
May 16, 2026
Identifier
KXLLM1-26MAY16-AMAZ
Cross-venue match
Similar contract on polymarket at —.
Event family
Best AI in May 2026.
This view keeps the individual contract next to its sibling outcomes. For long-tail search traffic, this is the useful context: where the current price sits inside the event, how much volume exists around the family, and which outcomes have actual depth.
Total volume
$35K
Outcomes
8
Highest price
Claude 97¢
Current share
1%
Amazon Nova
kalshi · KXLLM1-26MAY16-AMAZ
ChatGPT
kalshi · KXLLM1-26MAY16-OPEN
Gemini
kalshi · KXLLM1-26MAY16-GOOG
Claude
kalshi · KXLLM1-26MAY16-ANTH
Grok
kalshi · KXLLM1-26MAY16-XAI
Qwen
kalshi · KXLLM1-26MAY16-ALIB
Dola
kalshi · KXLLM1-26MAY16-BYTE
Muse
kalshi · KXLLM1-26MAY16-META
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
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SimpleFunctions context
Index, screen, query, and monitor.
Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
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Event Probability API
Read 1% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
Prices, orderbooks, movement, heat, and liquidity indicators across venues.
World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
Map a thesis or exposure to candidate event markets and monitoring paths.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.