Aisha Wahab to win CA-14 Special Election
Aisha Wahab is priced at 89¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 87¢ bid, 91¢ ask, 4¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 7 inside CA-14 Special Election Winner?.
Price history
89¢ current
+8¢Contract brief
A special election is scheduled for August 18, 2026 to fill the seat of California’s 14th Congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives. This market will resolve according to the winner of this election. This market includes any potential runoff election or second round. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including: https://www.sos.ca.gov/.
Outcome
Aisha Wahab
Rank
#1 of 7
Leader
Aisha Wahab 89¢
Range
1¢-89¢
Family volume
$3K
Identifier
0x54c2b2d8...b20e
May 29, 2026, 11:08 PM UTC · 12m ago
Implied probability
Bid
87¢
Ask
91¢
Spread
4¢
Reported volume
$495
Family rank
#1 of 7
7 outcomes · CA-14 Special Election Winner?
Closes
Aug 18, 2026
Family volume
$3K
Orderbook snapshot
87 / 91¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
A special election is scheduled for August 18, 2026 to fill the seat of California’s 14th Congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives. This market will resolve according to the winner of this election. This market includes any potential runoff election or second round. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including: https://www.sos.ca.gov/.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Aug 18, 2026
Identifier
0x54c2b2d8…b20e
Event family
CA-14 Special Election Winner.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$3K
Outcomes
7
Highest price
Aisha Wahab 89¢
Current share
20%
Aisha Wahab
polymarket · 0x54c2b2d889a1f1d86e2ebe557a6b3da3e35c77c476c96d1a90498632f00db20e
Rakhi Israni Singh
polymarket · 0x67bf91daba125a739f48ef9bc0a6d3420cb2258ba44cb1e93ae18cce6e0b3175
Melissa Hernandez
polymarket · 0xee7620795f7f183502038a77d5241d058e3f125ade9dfa6477bb39909b0ebbf9
Carin Elam
polymarket · 0x95283f33fee7c635fb337621ece148b6f7cd5d3d9391b463a06d62bcd1f8b562
Wendy Huang
polymarket · 0x785f19c9647e7593877e134f33b9febf5260039c5a7032580a132f9cc8c35209
Victor Aguilar Jr.
polymarket · 0x22c532b8a8d9d4eb5bf0795ea02828e5206bfb9c05c126576cd97fa0264436f6
Matt Ortega
polymarket · 0x58f9327f381b0c46a667f9ae7ac63c358f955727ee2d25b51207db6ec8ff48ff
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
Odds pages
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Event Probability API
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.