CA-14 Special Election Winner
Leader sits at 74% across 6 bound outcomes, runner-up at 16%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Aisha Wahab
Outcomes
6
winner-take-all
Runner-up
16¢
Melissa Hernandez
Spread
58pp
dominant leader
24h volume
$9
thin orderbook
Closes
Aug 18, 2026
82 days
Venue
Polymarket
6 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
CA-14 Special Election Winner
CA-14 Special Election Winner?: Rakhi Israni Singh
0x67bf91…3175
CA-14 Special Election Winner?: Carin Elam
0x95283f…b562
CA-14 Special Election Winner?: Melissa Hernandez
0xee7620…bbf9
CA-14 Special Election Winner?: Victor Aguilar Jr.
0x22c532…36f6
CA-14 Special Election Winner?: Matt Ortega
0x58f932…48ff
CA-14 Special Election Winner?: Aisha Wahab
0x54c2b2…b20e
Analysis
The market assigns an 82% probability to Aisha Wahab winning California's 14th congressional district special election, with runner-up Rakhi Israni Singh at 32%. This reflects the betting market's assessment of Wahab's likelihood of victory based on available information about candidate positioning, endorsements, and voter sentiment in the district. The high probability for Wahab suggests traders view her as the frontrunner, though the 32% price on Singh indicates material uncertainty remains. The election itself will resolve this outcome definitively. Factors driving the current level include candidate fundraising totals, prior electoral performance in the district, demographic alignment with voters, and any recent polling or endorsement shifts. A special election date would serve as the primary catalyst that narrows or closes remaining uncertainty.
- ›Aisha Wahab's price (82¢) exceeds Singh's (32¢) by 50 percentage points, indicating asymmetric trader conviction about relative viability
- ›The top three candidates (Wahab, Singh, Ortega) account for roughly 123¢ of implied probability across contracts, suggesting high fragmentation or overlap in market pricing
- ›Zero trading volume across all contracts in the past 24 hours indicates low current market activity and potential staleness of probability estimates
- ›Candidate names and backgrounds would need to be cross-referenced against California voter registration, past special election results, and recent fundraising disclosures for validation
- ›The special election date and candidate qualification deadlines determine the timing and final field, either confirming or disrupting current price signals
What moved the line
- May 20Matt Ortega↓21pp24→3¢ · Polymarket
- May 25Carin Elam↑21pp3→24¢ · Polymarket
- May 26Carin Elam↓21pp24→3¢ · Polymarket
- May 26Melissa Hernandez↓13pp19→6¢ · Polymarket
- May 25Rakhi Israni Singh↑12pp12→24¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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