Steve Hilton · California Governor Primary Election: First Place
Steve Hilton is priced at 38¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 37¢ bid, 38¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #2 of 16 inside California Governor Primary Election: First Place.
Price history
38¢ current
+13¢Contract brief
The non-partisan primary election for Governor of California is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. The top two candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Governor of California. This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the most valid votes in this primary election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the results of the primary election for Governor of California as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of California, specifically the Office of the Secretary of State.
Outcome
Steve Hilton
Rank
#2 of 16
Leader
Xavier Becerra 52¢
Range
0¢-52¢
Family volume
$91K
Identifier
0xc8559283...61fe
May 28, 2026, 5:38 AM UTC · 10m ago
Implied probability
Bid
37¢
Ask
38¢
Spread
1¢
24h volume
$9K
Family rank
#2 of 16
16 outcomes · California Governor Primary Election: First Place
Closes
Jun 2, 2026
Family volume
$91K
Orderbook snapshot
37 / 38¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
The non-partisan primary election for Governor of California is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. The top two candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Governor of California. This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the most valid votes in this primary election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the results of the primary election for Governor of California as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of California, specifically the Office of the Secretary of State.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Jun 2, 2026
Identifier
0xc8559283…61fe
Cross-venue match
Similar contract on kalshi at 37¢, +1¢ versus this page.
Event family
California Governor Primary Election: First Place.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$91K
Outcomes
16
Highest price
Xavier Becerra 52¢
Current share
17%
Xavier Becerra
polymarket · 0x481e603aa927b41f06ce20e6d65eb3738a4d2f9316c47ac24985c3d8a409c2f1
Steve Hilton
polymarket · 0xc8559283856653af1e08c6603ce0c26135db9beaac4df305bc4af1aff53861fe
Tom Steyer
polymarket · 0x37cddfae30b1504a955a70d555381ee2b4aae5c09e1bcf43b654d79957c196af
Matt Mahan
polymarket · 0x7ab88f0efc9ea6d20c39c31f2f685fbd4e62a71b971aa10b09735651dcb1394a
Leo Zacky
polymarket · 0x634b55f6651f80e80fa8b05c22c9decc84b9b7d9f140e5d5dbde3270974977a7
Tony Thurmond
polymarket · 0x8d2f9adc903b3fbe3a903826daebfc596b68bd9c12437981d3802e7294026976
Katie Porter
polymarket · 0x3132f55db2aeeea9709886fa264743dac57e68fccf083a4145895952f24e757c
Chad Bianco
polymarket · 0x13a3d72694965af0397ffe37470121ce05fe7a8904ad3eb4884c33a063fbd04a
Betty Yee
polymarket · 0xbaed702ec0cb26014c2dffe80c332f68b80332ddbe80c638a569011f96276b7a
Nicki Minaj
polymarket · 0x4efa53479f229f1a6db1a0912cfed9208b6e5b5ecadfeeebd6c15484661ad97d
Raji Rab
polymarket · 0xd869d4f39dd2b163b123dd482c7c0e068319f8bd1ee83f59bc1e299ab1ab246b
Antonio Villaraigosa
polymarket · 0x0c8bd249d08fd79ca7a8e8205829af0689aa7959f38acc515cbf4827a4036a27
Derek Grasty
polymarket · 0xc7e94e134f454e2baeb6b6675ea22d2c2a58f3af37cf8807069e53b883342e4c
Elaine Culotti
polymarket · 0x170a13cd63a3450f35b501220fff089ff7f38ab4bde02e920710a67204f519bb
Daniel Mercuri
polymarket · 0x95fd40d754f5bbfa2bc95393d5bb147f3754d2c14b76ec380c66225dd60a2103
Thunder Parley
polymarket · 0x93d8e23358b9c973688f4790c04458106699b06731c629fc1108933abb0568fc
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
taker
Score
0.625
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.