Christopher Luxon out by September 30
Christopher Luxon out by September 30 is priced at 26¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 24¢ bid, 28¢ ask, 4¢ spread. This page tracks a standalone prediction-market contract.
Price history
26¢ current
Contract brief
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Christopher Luxon ceases to be Prime Minister of New Zealand for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Christopher Luxon's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Christopher Luxon and the government of New Zealand; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Outcome
Christopher Luxon out by September 30
Rank
Standalone
Leader
—
Range
—
Family volume
$2K
Identifier
0x76d208e6...2e62
May 26, 2026, 9:38 PM UTC · 29m ago
Implied probability
Bid
24¢
Ask
28¢
Spread
4¢
Reported volume
$2K
Family rank
Standalone
Standalone contract
Closes
Sep 30, 2026
Family volume
$2K
Orderbook snapshot
24 / 28¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Christopher Luxon ceases to be Prime Minister of New Zealand for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Christopher Luxon's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Christopher Luxon and the government of New Zealand; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Sep 30, 2026
Identifier
0x76d208e6…2e62
Event family
Christopher Luxon out by September 30.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$2K
Outcomes
1
Highest price
Christopher Luxon out by September 30 26¢
Current share
100%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.