SimpleFunctions

Lee Jang-woo to win Daejeon Mayoral Election

Lee Jang-woo is priced at 10¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 8¢ bid, 13¢ ask, 5¢ spread. This outcome ranks #2 of 2 inside Daejeon Mayoral Election Winner.

Price history

10¢ current

3¢
0¢10¢20¢
May 17, 2026May 27, 2026

Contract brief

The Daejeon mayoral election is scheduled to take place on June 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Interim, temporary, or caretaker mayors will not count. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the South Korean government, specifically the National Election Commission (https://www.nec.go.kr/).

Outcome

Lee Jang-woo

Rank

#2 of 2

Leader

Huh Tae-jung 89¢

Range

9¢-89¢

Family volume

$18K

Identifier

0x68d54409...7d63

May 27, 2026, 11:38 AM UTC · 13m ago

Implied probability

10¢
Latest venue quote
May 27, 2026, 11:38 AM UTC · 13m ago

Bid

Ask

13¢

Spread

24h volume

$194

Family rank

#2 of 2

2 outcomes · Daejeon Mayoral Election Winner

Closes

Jun 3, 2026

Family volume

$18K

Orderbook snapshot

8 / 13¢

Polymarket
5¢ spread
BidSize
8¢39
7¢320
6¢1.5K
6¢200
4¢1.5K
4¢900
4¢1.0K
4¢300
AskSize
13¢178
13¢29
13¢25
14¢415
14¢150
17¢100
17¢10
17¢75

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

The Daejeon mayoral election is scheduled to take place on June 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Interim, temporary, or caretaker mayors will not count. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the South Korean government, specifically the National Election Commission (https://www.nec.go.kr/).

Venue

Polymarket

Closes

Jun 3, 2026

Identifier

0x68d54409…7d63

SF Signal
SF Index
50422.10
Regime
neutral

Event family

Daejeon Mayoral Election Winner.

The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.

Total volume

$18K

Outcomes

2

Highest price

Huh Tae-jung 89¢

Current share

60%

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

50422.1%

IY (No)

622.5%

Adj IY

50422%

CRI

9

RV

2256%

VR

0.94

Regime

neutral

Score

0.5

Full indicator table

50422.1%
622.5%
Adj IY
50422%
9
RV
2256%
VR
0.94
IAR
1.0/h

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SimpleFunctions context

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.