Daniel Noboa out as President of Ecuador by June 30
Daniel Noboa out as President of Ecuador by June 30 is priced at 5¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 2¢ bid, 7¢ ask, 5¢ spread. This page tracks a standalone prediction-market contract.
Price history
5¢ current
Contract brief
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Daniel Noboa ceases to be President of Ecuador for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (Ecuador Time, GMT-5). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Daniel Noboa's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Daniel Noboa and the government of Ecuador; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Outcome
Daniel Noboa out as President of Ecuador by June 30
Rank
Standalone
Leader
—
Range
—
Family volume
$2K
Identifier
0x6b2696a2...2898
Jun 4, 2026, 11:38 AM UTC · 8m ago
Implied probability
Bid
2¢
Ask
7¢
Spread
5¢
Reported volume
$2K
Family rank
Standalone
Standalone contract
Closes
Jun 30, 2026
Family volume
$2K
Orderbook snapshot
2 / 7¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Daniel Noboa ceases to be President of Ecuador for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (Ecuador Time, GMT-5). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Daniel Noboa's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Daniel Noboa and the government of Ecuador; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Jun 30, 2026
Identifier
0x6b2696a2…2898
Event family
Daniel Noboa out as President of Ecuador by June 30.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$2K
Outcomes
1
Highest price
Daniel Noboa out as President of Ecuador by June 30 5¢
Current share
100%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.