Trump out as President by June 30
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 14% across 18 contracts. Kalshi at 6%, Polymarket at 16% — a 10pp cross-venue gap.
Implied probability
Kalshi
6%
3 contracts
Polymarket
16%
15 contracts
Cross-venue gap
10pp
wide divergence
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$173K
18 contracts
Closes
Jun 30, 2026
57 days
Cross-venue edge
Kalshi 6¢ · Polymarket 16¢ · 10pp spread
Buy on Kalshi (6¢, 3 contracts) and sell on Polymarket (16¢) — assuming both contracts settle on the same outcome.
Bracket families
17 clusters across 18 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 0% of their title tokens — “Miguel Díaz-Canel out as” vs “Republican Presidential Nominee 2028: Donald Trump Jr”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as
Cluster 2
Republican Presidential Nominee 2028: Donald Trump Jr
Republican Presidential Nominee 2028: Donald Trump Jr.
0x4a9d58…6557
Cluster 3
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?
0x6bd566…0d0d
Cluster 4
Trump out as President before 2027
Trump out as President before 2027?
0x48b0b0…4722
Cluster 5
Donald Trump out before 2027
Donald Trump out before 2027?: Before 2027
KXTRUMPOUT27-27-DJT
Cluster 6
Presidential Election Winner 2028: Donald Trump
Presidential Election Winner 2028: Donald Trump
0xce9a5f…f34a
Cluster 7
Netanyahu out by
Netanyahu out by...?: June 30
0x865303…3cce
Cluster 8
Kash Patel out by
Kash Patel out by...?: June 30
0x79859c…13ce
Cluster 9
Starmer out by
Starmer out by...?: June 30
0xbee2cd…5053
Cluster 10
Who will win the next presidential election
Who will win the next presidential election?: Donald J. Trump
KXPRESPERSON-28-DTRU
Cluster 11
Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa out as leader of Bahrain by
Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa out as leader of Bahrain by...?: June 30
0x08b346…ee0a
Cluster 12
Claudia Sheinbaum out as President of Mexico by
Claudia Sheinbaum out as President of Mexico by...?: June 30, 2026
0x5649a9…640d
Cluster 13
What will happen before GTA VI
What will happen before GTA VI?: Trump out as President
0x84f8b7…66e9
Cluster 14
Mahmoud Abbas out as Palestinian President by
Mahmoud Abbas out as Palestinian President by...?: June 30
0x6a5a2f…e51a
Cluster 15
Daniel Noboa out as President of Ecuador by June 30
Daniel Noboa out as President of Ecuador by June 30?
0x6b2696…2898
Cluster 16
Will legislation that designates June 14, the birthday of President Donald J. Trump, as a legal public holiday for federal employees become law before Jan 1, 2027
Cluster 17
Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by
Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by...?: June 30, 2026
0xf47e8c…d286
What moved the line
- Jun 2June 30↑14pp6→20¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 1June 30↓10pp16→6¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 3June 30↓9pp20→11¢ · Polymarket
- May 30June 30, 2026↓6pp13→7¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 3June 30, 2026↓6pp10→4¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in trump
- Who will Trump announce as next Attorney General by June 30last 93% · 1d
- Who will Trump speak to in Maylast 20% · 1d
- Will Trump publicly insult someone on...last 93% · 1d
- Will Trump sign an executive order on...last 25% · 1d
- Who will Trump publicly insult by May 31last 20% · 1d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Other questions in trump.
In trump
Related reading
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With May 31 approaching, traders are betting heavily on Trump publicly insulting specific figures. Marjorie Taylor Greene surged 63¢ to 82¢, and Tucker Carlson jumped 77¢ to 81¢. This indicates a likely public feud before month-end.
Powell's Exit Probability Skyrockets as Trump Influence Looms
The market for Jerome Powell departing as Fed Chair by May 22 surged an unprecedented +48 points, reaching 95¢. This signals a dramatic and sudden reassessment of Federal Reserve leadership stability, raising questions about the future of monetary policy under a potential Trump second term.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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