Trump out as President by June 30
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 14% across 18 contracts. Kalshi at 6%, Polymarket at 16% — a 10pp cross-venue gap.
Implied probability
Kalshi
6%
3 contracts
Polymarket
16%
15 contracts
Cross-venue gap
10pp
wide divergence
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$173K
18 contracts
Closes
Jun 30, 2026
11 days
30-day trend
Cross-venue edge
Kalshi 6¢ · Polymarket 16¢ · 10pp spread
Buy on Kalshi (6¢, 3 contracts) and sell on Polymarket (16¢) — assuming both contracts settle on the same outcome.
Bracket families
17 clusters across 18 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 0% of their title tokens — “Miguel Díaz-Canel out as” vs “Republican Presidential Nominee 2028: Donald Trump Jr”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as
Cluster 2
Republican Presidential Nominee 2028: Donald Trump Jr
Republican Presidential Nominee 2028: Donald Trump Jr.
0x4a9d58…6557
Cluster 3
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?
0x6bd566…0d0d
Cluster 4
Trump out as President before 2027
Trump out as President before 2027?
0x48b0b0…4722
Cluster 5
Donald Trump out before 2027
Donald Trump out before 2027?: Before 2027
KXTRUMPOUT27-27-DJT
Cluster 6
Presidential Election Winner 2028: Donald Trump
Presidential Election Winner 2028: Donald Trump
0xce9a5f…f34a
Cluster 7
Netanyahu out by
Netanyahu out by...?: June 30
0x865303…3cce
Cluster 8
Kash Patel out by
Kash Patel out by...?: June 30
0x79859c…13ce
Cluster 9
Starmer out by
Starmer out by...?: June 30
0xbee2cd…5053
Cluster 10
Who will win the next presidential election
Who will win the next presidential election?: Donald J. Trump
KXPRESPERSON-28-DTRU
Cluster 11
Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa out as leader of Bahrain by
Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa out as leader of Bahrain by...?: June 30
0x08b346…ee0a
Cluster 12
Claudia Sheinbaum out as President of Mexico by
Claudia Sheinbaum out as President of Mexico by...?: June 30, 2026
0x5649a9…640d
Cluster 13
What will happen before GTA VI
What will happen before GTA VI?: Trump out as President
0x84f8b7…66e9
Cluster 14
Mahmoud Abbas out as Palestinian President by
Mahmoud Abbas out as Palestinian President by...?: June 30
0x6a5a2f…e51a
Cluster 15
Daniel Noboa out as President of Ecuador by June 30
Daniel Noboa out as President of Ecuador by June 30?
0x6b2696…2898
Cluster 16
Will legislation that designates June 14, the birthday of President Donald J. Trump, as a legal public holiday for federal employees become law before Jan 1, 2027
Cluster 17
Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by
Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by...?: June 30, 2026
0xf47e8c…d286
Analysis
This probability reflects the likelihood that Donald Trump leaves the presidency before June 30, 2026—approximately 18 days from today. The 14% aggregate estimate sits between Kalshi's 6% and Polymarket's 16%, indicating disagreement about near-term removal scenarios. The probability is primarily driven by two considerations: the constitutional mechanisms for presidential removal (impeachment, disability under the 25th Amendment, or resignation) and the current political environment's willingness to invoke them. With less than three weeks remaining, any resolution would likely stem from an unexpected health event, accelerated legal proceedings directly incapacitating the office, or an unanticipated political rupture. The cross-venue 10-percentage-point gap suggests different risk assessments of these low-probability events occurring within this specific timeframe.
- ›No active impeachment proceedings are publicly documented as of June 2026, making constitutional removal through this channel highly unlikely within 18 days
- ›The 25th Amendment disability provision requires cabinet consensus and Congressional majority confirmation, creating a high threshold unlikely to materialize without a major health event or public disclosure
- ›Kalshi and Polymarket pricing diverges by 10 percentage points, suggesting uncertainty about model calibration rather than clarity on underlying events
- ›Resignation would represent a voluntary act with no publicly reported indicators in recent statements or reporting
- ›The resolution deadline is imminent (June 30), meaning any relevant catalyst must occur or become actionable within weeks rather than months
Recently closed in trump
- Will the number of distinct days with a Getty Images editorial photo of Trump be exactly 7 between Jun 15, 2026 and Jun 21, 2026last 95% · 3d
- Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act becomes law without Donald Trump’s signature before Jul 14, 2026last 97% · 8d
- Will Donald Trump make between 80 and 99 Truth Social posts the week of Apr 19, 2026last 48% · 18d
- Will Glenn Youngkin join the Trump administrationlast 3% · 21d
- Will Trump say "Fort Trump" before Jul 1, 2026last 3% · 22d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In trump
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Trump Markets High Volume – World Cup Attendance at 93¢
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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