Jasmine Crockett · Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
Jasmine Crockett is priced at 1¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 1¢ bid, 1¢ ask, 0¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 16 inside Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028.
Price history
1¢ current
−49¢Contract brief
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Outcome
Jasmine Crockett
Rank
#1 of 16
Leader
Jasmine Crockett 1¢
Range
1¢-1¢
Family volume
$662.1M
Identifier
0x3cd6e526...a7d3
May 27, 2026, 5:51 AM UTC · 0m ago
Implied probability
Bid
1¢
Ask
1¢
Spread
0¢
24h volume
$45K
Family rank
#1 of 16
16 outcomes · Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
Closes
Nov 7, 2028
Family volume
$662.1M
Orderbook snapshot
1 / 1¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Nov 7, 2028
Identifier
0x3cd6e526…a7d3
Event family
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$662.1M
Outcomes
16
Highest price
Jasmine Crockett 1¢
Current share
5%
Oprah Winfrey
polymarket · 0xe06a7e94cf2fa8dc2085b7610fe16e9be1cde6654f34d365c13da1149b276c61
Bernie Sanders
polymarket · 0x30cfb887558b20373a984da60c372fe5a90c0296aa6d8bb413a8aa7543846da2
Chelsea Clinton
polymarket · 0xf2e51acfbb6d0414dc2ace81b7dc2af7c165e443dcb91f6caa7aab6d6ab4f06d
Andrew Yang
polymarket · 0x450810ae738a0ff820d3248f2b24937f63fb8c8cf422ed2a915125adb4d9d3c8
Hillary Clinton
polymarket · 0x663b88d3a8f2341bb8d878709dc78632bcaf7512e577bd15521e5d8ed933efbc
LeBron James
polymarket · 0x8b203037c7c0e21b500314f8398d2a8ea294b7ce1f4f9185f426425a3505bc45
Tim Walz
polymarket · 0x3265b10daeb30dbcc3214bd02e488551d0a5d3028392f4152e4750b943fbfc91
George Clooney
polymarket · 0x822e61527476cabf98927e3aad385c5ecdae7086f945535f2c1fd9ae8dbfa46e
Beto O’Rourke
polymarket · 0x8ecd1d15e521b7d1020ad5596cc981c8764e9dcfbc3648f582e1a5138aee7185
Kim Kardashian
polymarket · 0x0f8ef3cc906ba7ba94a44724738df44bdd5f73e59e40c9c8b4ff8569e349643c
Phil Murphy
polymarket · 0x29283b56d3eec6d1d89fff51793d9d2e01579d2379b1d3e9ebda175d3561e809
MrBeast
polymarket · 0xc44edcfdedb422bae8ff1803e2178d1ee025fc41efd81400ccbede709e018841
Zohran Mamdani
polymarket · 0x3535fb2f4aef6619dde8b367cb5e5d209526bb496d5d9778428c58a0252435e3
Liz Cheney
polymarket · 0x46dbd48d6bde5b81edb480e0f676a2cdda6c6b592c4d86a9367c7ad5a9870195
Hunter Biden
polymarket · 0x1945a8b23e313ed7423b6b6fd556f9ab5578900376b565a61dc480a5f4f35d21
Jasmine Crockett
polymarket · 0x3cd6e52603d80ddbbdac9b1a4d43f9b7faa6aae4fae4d0fdfad3bd58454da7d3
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.341
Observability
low
Event type
political
Related readings
Matched from SimpleFunctions blog, opinions, technical guides, concepts, and learn pages.
Resolution Risk Premium: Pricing the Rule, Not the Outcome
When the resolution rule is fuzzy, the price is the market's estimate of how the rule will be interpreted, not the outcome's probability. Three case studies and the discount math.
Gavin Newsom December 2025: How California’s Governor Is Shaping the 2028 Presidential Odds
In-depth look at Gavin Newsom’s status in December 2025, his California record, and what prediction markets are signaling about his 2028 presidential chances.
Maker / Taker Regime in Prediction Markets: How to Read the Orderbook State
Three regime states (maker-dominated, taker-dominated, neutral) and how to read which one a Kalshi or Polymarket contract is in. Strategy follows regime, not thesis.
Implied Yield vs Raw Probability: Why Bond-Adjacent Prediction Markets Need a Different Lens
Why fixed-income-adjacent prediction-market contracts need to be priced in implied yield, not raw probability, with two real Kalshi Fed-decision contracts as a case study.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: Which Prediction Market Should You Trade?
In-depth comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket for prediction market traders. Regulatory structure, liquidity, fees, API tooling, and cross-venue trading with SimpleFunctions.
Reflexivity Loops in Election Markets: When Price → Consensus → Price
Election prediction markets have a feedback loop where price becomes news becomes price. How the loop works, the 2024 case study, and how to size trades against it.
SimpleFunctions context
Index, screen, query, and monitor.
Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
Filter adjacent contracts by volume, expiry, IY, CRI, venue, and theme.
Event Probability API
Read 1% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
Prices, orderbooks, movement, heat, and liquidity indicators across venues.
World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
Map a thesis or exposure to candidate event markets and monitoring paths.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.