Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination is priced at 1¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 1¢ bid, 1¢ ask, 0¢ spread. This page tracks a standalone prediction-market contract.
Price history
1¢ current
−49¢Contract brief
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Outcome
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination
Rank
Standalone
Leader
—
Range
—
Family volume
$20.5M
Identifier
0xc8f1cf5d...2e47
May 27, 2026, 10:13 AM UTC · 0m ago
Implied probability
Bid
1¢
Ask
1¢
Spread
0¢
24h volume
$4K
Family rank
Standalone
Standalone contract
Closes
Nov 7, 2028
Family volume
$20.5M
Orderbook snapshot
1 / 1¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Nov 7, 2028
Identifier
0xc8f1cf5d…2e47
Cross-venue match
Similar contract on kalshi at 23¢, -22¢ versus this page.
Event family
This market.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$20.5M
Outcomes
1
Highest price
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination 1¢
Current share
100%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.341
Observability
low
Event type
political
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.