Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028?

This Stephen A. Smith Democratic nomination market shows extreme mispricing signals with a 158% annualized yield on the Yes side despite 625 days to expiration, suggesting the 30¢ price significantly undervalues the probability. The 236% realized volatility and 1.75 vol ratio indicate substantial uncertainty, yet the thin $358.79 daily volume and modest $13,960.74 open interest raise liquidity concerns that may be constraining price discovery. The recent 3-cent price rise over seven days combined with a neutral regime and low 0.2/h information arrival rate suggests this market lacks catalysts, making the elevated yield potentially compensation for illiquidity risk rather than true mispricing.

Resolution rules

If Stephen A. Smith announces a presidential campaign to contest the presidential nomination of the Democratic party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before Jan 1, 2028,, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

Regime

Trade