The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 98th Academy Awards in 2026, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 22, followed by the ceremony on March 15, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed movie is nominated for the 98th Academy Award for Achievement in Casting. If a film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Achievement in Casting when the 2026 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No". If, for any reason, no nominations are declared by March 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
Sinners | 98.8% |
One Battle After Another | 97.2% |
Marty Supreme | 93.0% |
78.0% |
Frankenstein | 56.0% |
Sentimental Value | 32.5% |
Wicked: For Good | 9.0% |
F1 | 0.0% |
CurrentWake Up Dead Man | 0.0% |
Rental Family | 0.0% |
Jay Kelly | 0.0% |
Avatar: Fire and Ash | 0.0% |
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Kalshi |
| 21.0% |
| $3,368 |
| Trade |
Kalshi | 43.0% | $6,974 | Trade |
Kalshi | 1.0% | $110 | Trade |
Kalshi | 71.0% | $6,402 | Trade |