SimpleFunctions

Tie to win Fredrikstad vs Start

Tie is priced at 24¢ midpoint on Kalshi. Current book: 23¢ bid, 24¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #2 of 3 inside Fredrikstad vs Start Winner.

Price history

24¢ current

+6¢
20¢
May 26, 2026May 28, 2026

Contract brief

If Tie wins the Fredrikstad vs Start professional Eliteserien soccer game originally scheduled for May 29, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time (does not include extra time or penalties), then the market resolves to Yes.

Outcome

Tie

Rank

#2 of 3

Leader

Fredrikstad 54¢

Range

22¢-54¢

Family volume

$8

Identifier

KXELITESERIENGAME-26MAY29FFKSTA-TIE

May 28, 2026, 10:08 PM UTC · 14m ago

Implied probability

24¢
Bid/ask midpoint
May 28, 2026, 10:08 PM UTC · 14m ago

Bid

23¢

Ask

24¢

Spread

Reported volume

$0

Family rank

#2 of 3

3 outcomes · Fredrikstad vs Start Winner

Closes

Jun 12, 2026

Family volume

$8

Orderbook snapshot

23 / 24¢

Kalshi
1¢ spread
BidSize
23¢1.0K
22¢255
21¢1.3K
20¢264
19¢2.6K
AskSize
24¢1.1K
25¢1.2K
26¢1.8K
27¢1.1K
28¢264

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

If Tie wins the Fredrikstad vs Start professional Eliteserien soccer game originally scheduled for May 29, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time (does not include extra time or penalties), then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

Jun 12, 2026

Identifier

KXELITESERIENGAME-26MAY29FFKSTA-TIE

SF Signal
SF Index
4132.14
Regime
neutral

Event family

Fredrikstad vs Start Winner.

The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.

Total volume

$8

Outcomes

3

Highest price

Fredrikstad 54¢

Current share

0%

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

8264.3%

IY (No)

737.4%

Adj IY

4132%

CRI

3

Overround

-0.0%

Regime

neutral

Score

0.5

Full indicator table

8264.3%
737.4%
Adj IY
4132%
3
Overround
-0.0%

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.