Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30 is priced at 5¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 4¢ bid, 6¢ ask, 2¢ spread. This page tracks a standalone prediction-market contract.
Price history
5¢ current
−45¢Contract brief
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military engagement between the military forces of Greece and Turkey by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "military engagement" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Greek and Turkish military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution; however, minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not. Missiles or drone strikes that are intercepted will not qualify, regardless of whether they land on adversarial territory or cause damage. Similarly, surface-to-air missile strikes impacting adversarial territory will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution (although surface-to-air missiles fired at an adversarial military aircraft would qualify). The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Outcome
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30
Rank
Standalone
Leader
—
Range
—
Family volume
$1.1M
Identifier
0x707ab641...0151
May 28, 2026, 1:38 AM UTC · 14m ago
Implied probability
Bid
4¢
Ask
6¢
Spread
2¢
24h volume
$3K
Family rank
Standalone
Standalone contract
Closes
Jun 30, 2026
Family volume
$1.1M
Orderbook snapshot
4 / 6¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military engagement between the military forces of Greece and Turkey by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "military engagement" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Greek and Turkish military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution; however, minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not. Missiles or drone strikes that are intercepted will not qualify, regardless of whether they land on adversarial territory or cause damage. Similarly, surface-to-air missile strikes impacting adversarial territory will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution (although surface-to-air missiles fired at an adversarial military aircraft would qualify). The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Jun 30, 2026
Identifier
0x707ab641…0151
Event family
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$1.1M
Outcomes
1
Highest price
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30 5¢
Current share
100%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.409
Observability
medium
Event type
political
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.