7 · How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026
7 is priced at 3¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 2¢ bid, 4¢ ask, 2¢ spread. This outcome ranks #5 of 12 inside How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026?.
Price history
3¢ current
−47¢Contract brief
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent. Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution. For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Outcome
7
Rank
#5 of 12
Leader
4 44¢
Range
0¢-44¢
Family volume
$4.6M
Identifier
0x9417863b...f668
May 28, 2026, 5:38 PM UTC · 30m ago
Implied probability
Bid
2¢
Ask
4¢
Spread
2¢
24h volume
$210
Family rank
#5 of 12
12 outcomes · How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026?
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
Family volume
$4.6M
Orderbook snapshot
2 / 4¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent. Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution. For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
Identifier
0x9417863b…f668
Event family
How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$4.6M
Outcomes
12
Highest price
4 44¢
Current share
13%
4
polymarket · 0x4437c8690e2edae1ab7acb0dcb40e536109ae6366e630d97f0bd764c9545ae57
5
polymarket · 0xaddf36ab28b5c372e4ed06a17767eefd101b363b846cf3c223efc31f8cd260a8
6
polymarket · 0x85d949e1aa73caddf263dc356e6f93125f9889dc3af14b243b3428823e2e0a81
8
polymarket · 0xf0aa26f04c3531f407c1e2bf6790a9e7d5e63885d14f0c262b5dd7556d9baeac
7
polymarket · 0x9417863b1b7a9c394ae8f95b12445d3aebf9a916e9a7201f147af90c2b87f668
11
polymarket · 0x0a43b74be16caef0ab4543343cf854abbe5321f0517b29437f56c9da2d96fa60
10
polymarket · 0xd19d541ce5fe1970e9b19976bae0dd259eeaa558129d5373e6479af72e8f412e
9
polymarket · 0xe7ef027386c6ba19db343b5b685e19035afccaf8891c814e6fbdc14dc259c9a3
15+
polymarket · 0xc89de60e9a7233124b8487e46909fed1e53b502f201955c892cf93f400cf573c
13
polymarket · 0x0e4ade6df320ac6a452cb8bbed1e875ea29335b2d57e13df16f0d21e29ef3fb4
14
polymarket · 0xd5f6a95f759ac6a3bbde671ce3eca5261385d70e95f4c3bb8233fc86e08028d2
12
polymarket · 0xc0016ebf2013957e354d646ec8c7977b6102337b25e0676895912a675ad1b785
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.409
Observability
medium
Event type
political
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.