SimpleFunctions

H.R. 22 (SAVE Act) signed into law in 2026

H.R. 22 (SAVE Act) signed into law in 2026 is priced at 8¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 7¢ bid, 9¢ ask, 2¢ spread. This page tracks a standalone prediction-market contract.

Price history

8¢ current

1¢
5¢10¢15¢
May 10, 2026May 25, 2026

Contract brief

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Save Act (H.R.22) is passed by both chambers of the U.S. Congress and signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution sources for this market will be Congress.gov’s legislation tracker (https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/22) and other official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Outcome

H.R. 22 (SAVE Act) signed into law in 2026

Rank

Standalone

Leader

Range

Family volume

$168K

Identifier

0xf2a1d529...d93a

Jun 8, 2026, 3:38 AM UTC · 24m ago

Implied probability

8¢
Latest venue quote
Jun 8, 2026, 3:38 AM UTC · 24m ago

Bid

Ask

Spread

24h volume

$16

Family rank

Standalone

Standalone contract

Closes

Dec 31, 2026

Family volume

$168K

Orderbook snapshot

7 / 9¢

Polymarket
2¢ spread
BidSize
100¢9
7¢3.7K
6¢5.5K
5¢758
4¢1.3K
3¢841
2¢27K
AskSize
9¢96
10¢40
11¢585
12¢2.1K
13¢2.5K
14¢1.7K
15¢6
16¢500

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Save Act (H.R.22) is passed by both chambers of the U.S. Congress and signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution sources for this market will be Congress.gov’s legislation tracker (https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/22) and other official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Venue

Polymarket

Closes

Dec 31, 2026

Identifier

0xf2a1d529…d93a

SF Signal
SF Index
1019.56
Regime
neutral

Cross-venue match

Similar contract on kalshi at , -1¢ versus this page.

View counterpart

Event family

H.R. 22 (SAVE Act) signed into law in 2026.

The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.

Total volume

$168K

Outcomes

1

Highest price

H.R. 22 (SAVE Act) signed into law in 2026 8¢

Current share

100%

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

Regime

neutral

Score

0.5

Observability

medium

Event type

political

Full indicator table

2039.1%
15.4%
Adj IY
1020%
12

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.