December 31, 2026 · India strike on Pakistan by
December 31, 2026 is priced at 26¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 25¢ bid, 26¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This page tracks a standalone prediction-market contract.
Price history
26¢ current
+4¢Contract brief
This market will resolve to "Yes" if India initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Pakistani territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Indian military forces that impact Pakistani territory (e.g., if an Indian missile or drone hits a target within Pakistan’s borders, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones that are intercepted before reaching Pakistani territory, as well as surface-to-air missile strikes, will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether debris lands on Pakistani soil or causes damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or any operation conducted by Indian ground forces will not qualify as a strike under this market. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Outcome
December 31, 2026
Rank
Standalone
Leader
—
Range
—
Family volume
$285K
Identifier
0xb7ca42c3...9021
May 23, 2026, 8:38 AM UTC · 18m ago
Implied probability
Bid
25¢
Ask
26¢
Spread
1¢
24h volume
$2K
Family rank
Standalone
Standalone contract
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
Family volume
$285K
Orderbook snapshot
25 / 26¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
This market will resolve to "Yes" if India initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Pakistani territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Indian military forces that impact Pakistani territory (e.g., if an Indian missile or drone hits a target within Pakistan’s borders, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones that are intercepted before reaching Pakistani territory, as well as surface-to-air missile strikes, will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether debris lands on Pakistani soil or causes damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or any operation conducted by Indian ground forces will not qualify as a strike under this market. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
Identifier
0xb7ca42c3…9021
Event family
India strike on Pakistan by.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$285K
Outcomes
1
Highest price
December 31, 2026 26¢
Current share
100%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.409
Observability
medium
Event type
political
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
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