SimpleFunctions

New Zealand to win Ireland vs New Zealand

New Zealand is priced at 98¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 98¢ bid, 99¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 2 inside Ireland vs New Zealand Winner.

Price history

98¢ current

+94¢
0¢25¢50¢75¢100¢
May 25, 2026May 28, 2026

Contract brief

If New Zealand wins the Ireland vs New Zealand men's professional Test International (M) cricket match originally scheduled for May 27, 2026 at 6:00 AM EDT, then the market resolves to Yes.

Outcome

New Zealand

Rank

#1 of 2

Leader

New Zealand 89¢

Range

7¢-89¢

Family volume

$322K

Identifier

KXTESTMATCH-26MAY270600NZIRL-NZ

May 28, 2026, 3:38 PM UTC · 3m ago

Implied probability

98¢
Latest venue quote
May 28, 2026, 3:38 PM UTC · 3m ago

Bid

98¢

Ask

99¢

Spread

24h volume

$250K

Family rank

#1 of 2

2 outcomes · Ireland vs New Zealand Winner

Closes

Jun 3, 2026

Family volume

$322K

Orderbook snapshot

98 / 99¢

Kalshi
1¢ spread
BidSize
98¢975
97¢8.9K
95¢16
93¢3.5K
89¢825
AskSize
99¢1.3K

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

If New Zealand wins the Ireland vs New Zealand men's professional Test International (M) cricket match originally scheduled for May 27, 2026 at 6:00 AM EDT, then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

Jun 3, 2026

Identifier

KXTESTMATCH-26MAY270600NZIRL-NZ

SF Signal
SF Index
50073.46
Regime
neutral

Event family

Ireland vs New Zealand Winner.

The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.

Total volume

$322K

Outcomes

2

Highest price

New Zealand 89¢

Current share

78%

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

CRI

8

VR

2.62

IAR

2.2/h

LAS

0.02

Regime

neutral

Score

0.5

Full indicator table

8
VR
2.62
IAR
2.2/h
LAS
0.02

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.