June 30 · Israel withdraws from Lebanon by
June 30 is priced at 10¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 9¢ bid, 11¢ ask, 2¢ spread. This outcome ranks #2 of 3 inside Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?.
Price history
10¢ current
Contract brief
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice. The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
Outcome
June 30
Rank
#2 of 3
Leader
July 31 18¢
Range
1¢-18¢
Family volume
$1.7M
Identifier
0x57165bc6...a5f2
May 28, 2026, 6:38 PM UTC · 8m ago
Implied probability
Bid
9¢
Ask
11¢
Spread
2¢
24h volume
$5K
Family rank
#2 of 3
3 outcomes · Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?
Closes
Jun 30, 2026
Family volume
$1.7M
Orderbook snapshot
9 / 11¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice. The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Jun 30, 2026
Identifier
0x57165bc6…a5f2
Event family
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$1.7M
Outcomes
3
Highest price
July 31 18¢
Current share
19%
July 31
polymarket · 0x5813dc7ee3feea004711c97bdf27c407c3e943d876432ef50b49b8399eae9f37
June 30
polymarket · 0x57165bc68af588cf16e499eecd6c040e458c939e0fb0dd4b193744a9d21aa5f2
May 31
polymarket · 0x8bb861046d70534248fe10aaef5ca28a91fe4c923db024005ea26b86946ca114
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
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