Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...
Leader sits at 18% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 12%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
July 31
Outcomes
2
winner-take-all
Runner-up
12¢
June 30
Spread
6pp
contested
24h volume
$8K
modest
Closes
Jul 31, 2026
64 days
Venue
Polymarket
2 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by
Analysis
This market is pricing a 9% probability that Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026—meaning traders assign roughly a 91% chance the withdrawal extends past that date. The probability reflects expectations around ongoing military operations, ceasefire negotiations, and diplomatic timelines. Factors driving the current level include the duration of the conflict, stated withdrawal conditions from Israeli leadership, and negotiation progress with Lebanese and international parties. Movement in this probability would likely follow concrete developments such as formal ceasefire announcements, verified troop reductions, or statements from Israeli military leadership on withdrawal timelines. The May 31 contract trading at 3% suggests markets view near-term withdrawal as especially unlikely, with the June 30 outcome representing the more plausible early-exit scenario.
- ›Israeli military and government statements on withdrawal conditions and timelines
- ›Status of ceasefire or de-escalation negotiations involving Israel, Lebanon, and international mediators
- ›Reported troop levels and military activity intensity on the ground in Lebanon
- ›Public commitments or agreements regarding withdrawal deadlines from Israeli defense officials
- ›Historical pattern of Israeli military operations in Lebanon and typical duration before drawdown
What moved the line
- May 25July 31↓12pp38→26¢ · Polymarket
- May 23July 31↓9pp39→30¢ · Polymarket
- May 24July 31↑8pp30→38¢ · Polymarket
- May 25June 30↓3pp13→10¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (18% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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