May 31 · Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by
May 31 is priced at 3¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 3¢ bid, 4¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #3 of 3 inside Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by...?.
Price history
3¢ current
−1¢Contract brief
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Hezbollah agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the 10-day ceasefire agreement announced on April 16, 2026), will not qualify. A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met: - Israel and Hezbollah each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria. - Both Israel and Hezbollah provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count. The inclusion of Israel and Hezbollah in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel and Hezbollah; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Outcome
May 31
Rank
#3 of 3
Leader
June 30 26¢
Range
6¢-26¢
Family volume
$1.4M
Identifier
0xc792f882...30ea
May 28, 2026, 5:38 PM UTC · 30m ago
Implied probability
Bid
3¢
Ask
4¢
Spread
1¢
24h volume
$83K
Family rank
#3 of 3
3 outcomes · Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by...?
Closes
May 31, 2026
Family volume
$1.4M
Orderbook snapshot
3 / 4¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Hezbollah agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the 10-day ceasefire agreement announced on April 16, 2026), will not qualify. A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met: - Israel and Hezbollah each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria. - Both Israel and Hezbollah provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count. The inclusion of Israel and Hezbollah in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel and Hezbollah; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
May 31, 2026
Identifier
0xc792f882…30ea
Event family
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$1.4M
Outcomes
3
Highest price
June 30 26¢
Current share
95%
June 30
polymarket · 0x86f43746cbd692719483aaeedc657eef89d9ffb91d6ffceacb1edf533e049516
June 15
polymarket · 0x053d22e12bfe8dd73b12fc1cf89858ecc0de76aede10fea3eca5c7877d8db40c
May 31
polymarket · 0xc792f8824ef9bb549a4f5d89eec898caefdd3df5a507783f80202d289e9130ea
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.