Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by...
Leader sits at 21% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 16%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
June 30
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
16¢
June 15
Spread
5pp
contested
24h volume
$137K
liquid
Closes
Jun 30, 2026
33 days
Venue
Polymarket
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by
Analysis
This prediction estimates a 17% chance that Israel and Hezbollah will finalize a permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026—roughly one week from the contract date. The current low probability reflects the absence of active, formalized negotiations or announced framework agreements as of mid-May 2026. Resolution depends primarily on whether diplomatic channels produce a signed, durable settlement within the narrow timeframe. An extension of the deadline or ongoing ceasefire without formal agreement would likely lower the probability further, while public announcements of negotiation progress or peace framework details could raise it. The May 31 deadline creates binary uncertainty: either a permanent deal materializes in the coming days, or it does not.
- ›Absence of publicly announced peace negotiations or signed framework agreement as of late May 2026
- ›Historical pattern of Israel-Hezbollah tensions typically resolving through ceasefires rather than permanent formal peace treaties
- ›The extremely tight seven-day window leaves minimal time for complex diplomatic processes including legislative approval in both parties
- ›Monitoring for any official statements from Israeli government, Lebanese authorities, or international mediators about imminent deal finalization
- ›Definition specificity: whether 'permanent peace deal' requires formal treaty, mutual recognition, or could include durable ceasefire arrangements
What moved the line
- May 23May 31↑7pp3→10¢ · Polymarket
- May 26June 30↓6pp37→31¢ · Polymarket
- May 26June 15↓5pp27→22¢ · Polymarket
- May 24May 31↑4pp10→14¢ · Polymarket
- May 25May 31↓3pp14→11¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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