June 15 · Israeli parliament dissolved by
June 15 is priced at 30¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 25¢ bid, 34¢ ask, 9¢ spread. This outcome ranks #3 of 4 inside Israeli parliament dissolved by...?.
Price history
30¢ current
−21¢Contract brief
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the sitting Israeli Knesset (Israel's parliament), as of this market's inception, is dissolved between market creation and June 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Outcome
June 15
Rank
#3 of 4
Leader
July 31 66¢
Range
1¢-66¢
Family volume
$357K
Identifier
0xdbdcd65c...e2d7
May 28, 2026, 9:38 PM UTC · 10m ago
Implied probability
Bid
25¢
Ask
34¢
Spread
9¢
24h volume
$69
Family rank
#3 of 4
4 outcomes · Israeli parliament dissolved by...?
Closes
Jun 15, 2026
Family volume
$357K
Orderbook snapshot
25 / 34¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the sitting Israeli Knesset (Israel's parliament), as of this market's inception, is dissolved between market creation and June 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Jun 15, 2026
Identifier
0xdbdcd65c…e2d7
Cross-venue match
Similar contract on kalshi at 17¢, +13¢ versus this page.
Event family
Israeli parliament dissolved by.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$357K
Outcomes
4
Highest price
July 31 66¢
Current share
0%
July 31
polymarket · 0xac1721c071b72e556df41a0c0d3c4d3c0baa599d352bbe92bc8450e06e596021
June 30
polymarket · 0x3f0bc2757babb8bb9971c9f782fe81f9db734c12d84822f1120a90681c991ff8
June 15
polymarket · 0xdbdcd65ce03b31e1c8444c5813f709dd258b7d90d4d81ae644a0351cd26de2d7
May 31
polymarket · 0x232ae0932dad1b4ca049881715f094c1e424604d2fd3e1b0ad01f0893cb3059f
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Observability
high
Event type
political
Full indicator table
Odds pages
Related prediction questions
Related readings
Matched from SimpleFunctions blog, opinions, technical guides, concepts, and learn pages.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: Which Prediction Market Should You Trade?
In-depth comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket for prediction market traders. Regulatory structure, liquidity, fees, API tooling, and cross-venue trading with SimpleFunctions.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: Mechanics, Fees, Regulation, Liquidity (2026)
Side-by-side comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket in 2026. Fee math, calibration data, withdrawal speed, and a decision tree for picking the right venue.
Prediction Market Orderbook Analysis: Reading Depth, Spread, and Liquidity
How to read prediction market orderbooks. Binary settlement, spread-as-percentage, depth asymmetry, executable edge calculation, and cross-venue arbitrage analysis.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: A Developer's Comparison of APIs, Orderbooks, and Liquidity
Data-driven comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket APIs, orderbooks, rate limits, and liquidity. Code examples for building on both prediction markets.
Information Finance Has Arrived: A Material Map of Prediction Markets in Q2 2026
Combined Kalshi + Polymarket volume hit $66B in just four months of 2026 — already greater than the entire 2025 industry total. Bernstein projects $1T by 2030. Two venues hold 95% of US share. The distribution layer fragmented across nine retail surfaces. AI agents are 30% of Polymarket wallet activ
MCP Servers for Prediction Markets: Connect Claude Code to Kalshi and Polymarket
Connect Claude Code, Cursor, or Cline to Kalshi and Polymarket prediction markets via MCP. One-line setup, 18 tools, real-time market data for AI agents.
SimpleFunctions context
Index, screen, query, and monitor.
Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
Filter adjacent contracts by volume, expiry, IY, CRI, venue, and theme.
Event Probability API
Read 30% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
Prices, orderbooks, movement, heat, and liquidity indicators across venues.
World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
Map a thesis or exposure to candidate event markets and monitoring paths.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.