IlloJuan vs TheGrefg Winner for La Velada del Año VI
IlloJuan is priced at 71¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 35¢ bid, 64¢ ask, 29¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 2 inside La Velada del Año VI: IlloJuan vs TheGrefg Winner.
Price history
71¢ current
+36¢Contract brief
If IlloJuan wins the La Velada del Año VI: IlloJuan vs TheGrefg boxing match originally scheduled for Jul 25, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
IlloJuan
Rank
#1 of 2
Leader
IlloJuan 35¢
Range
28¢-35¢
Family volume
$0
Identifier
KXBOXING-26JUL25ILLOTHEG-ILLO
May 24, 2026, 10:38 PM UTC · 19m ago
Implied probability
Bid
35¢
Ask
64¢
Spread
29¢
Reported volume
$180
Family rank
#1 of 2
2 outcomes · La Velada del Año VI: IlloJuan vs TheGrefg Winner
Closes
Aug 8, 2026
Family volume
$0
Orderbook snapshot
35 / 64¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If IlloJuan wins the La Velada del Año VI: IlloJuan vs TheGrefg boxing match originally scheduled for Jul 25, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Aug 8, 2026
Identifier
KXBOXING-26JUL25ILLOTHEG-ILLO
Event family
La Velada del Año VI: IlloJuan vs TheGrefg Winner.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$0
Outcomes
2
Highest price
IlloJuan 35¢
Current share
—
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.