Lamar Jackson traded by next season
Lamar Jackson traded by next season is priced at 21¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 5¢ bid, 38¢ ask, 33¢ spread. This page tracks a standalone prediction-market contract.
Price history
21¢ current
+4¢Contract brief
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Lamar Jackson of the Baltimore Ravens is traded to any other team before the start of the 2026-2027 NFL regular season. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The 2026-2027 NFL regular season will have started once the first snap has taken place in any 2026-2027 NFL regular season game. If Lamar Jackson is released, retires, is not on an NFL roster as of the resolution date, or otherwise remains on the Ravens through the start of the 2026-2027 NFL regular season, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Baltimore Ravens; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Outcome
Lamar Jackson traded by next season
Rank
Standalone
Leader
—
Range
—
Family volume
$900
Identifier
0xcf314c81...b7a4
May 26, 2026, 12:08 PM UTC · 20m ago
Implied probability
Bid
5¢
Ask
38¢
Spread
33¢
Reported volume
$900
Family rank
Standalone
Standalone contract
Closes
Sep 10, 2026
Family volume
$900
Orderbook snapshot
5 / 38¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Lamar Jackson of the Baltimore Ravens is traded to any other team before the start of the 2026-2027 NFL regular season. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The 2026-2027 NFL regular season will have started once the first snap has taken place in any 2026-2027 NFL regular season game. If Lamar Jackson is released, retires, is not on an NFL roster as of the resolution date, or otherwise remains on the Ravens through the start of the 2026-2027 NFL regular season, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Baltimore Ravens; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Sep 10, 2026
Identifier
0xcf314c81…b7a4
Event family
Lamar Jackson traded by next season.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$900
Outcomes
1
Highest price
Lamar Jackson traded by next season 21¢
Current share
100%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
Related readings
Matched from SimpleFunctions blog, opinions, technical guides, concepts, and learn pages.
Resolution Risk Premium: Pricing the Rule, Not the Outcome
When the resolution rule is fuzzy, the price is the market's estimate of how the rule will be interpreted, not the outcome's probability. Three case studies and the discount math.
Information Finance Has Arrived: A Material Map of Prediction Markets in Q2 2026
Combined Kalshi + Polymarket volume hit $66B in just four months of 2026 — already greater than the entire 2025 industry total. Bernstein projects $1T by 2030. Two venues hold 95% of US share. The distribution layer fragmented across nine retail surfaces. AI agents are 30% of Polymarket wallet activ
When the Orderbook Is Empty, You Have Information
An empty orderbook is not missing data. It is one of two specific stories — and the second story is the most reliable maker setup I have found on Polymarket.
Maker / Taker Regime in Prediction Markets: How to Read the Orderbook State
Three regime states (maker-dominated, taker-dominated, neutral) and how to read which one a Kalshi or Polymarket contract is in. Strategy follows regime, not thesis.
Liquidity Availability Is the Real Edge in Prediction Markets
Implied yield, cliff risk, and overround all describe what to trade. Liquidity Availability Score describes whether the orderbook can absorb the trade. Why LAS is the indicator that decides who actually books P&L.
Implied Yield vs Raw Probability: Why Bond-Adjacent Prediction Markets Need a Different Lens
Why fixed-income-adjacent prediction-market contracts need to be priced in implied yield, not raw probability, with two real Kalshi Fed-decision contracts as a case study.
SimpleFunctions context
Index, screen, query, and monitor.
Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
Filter adjacent contracts by volume, expiry, IY, CRI, venue, and theme.
Event Probability API
Read 21% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
Prices, orderbooks, movement, heat, and liquidity indicators across venues.
World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
Map a thesis or exposure to candidate event markets and monitoring paths.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.