Michael Hummert to win Montana Democratic Senate Primary
Michael Hummert is priced at 1¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 1¢ bid, 2¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #4 of 5 inside Montana Democratic Senate Primary Winner.
Price history
1¢ current
−3¢Contract brief
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Montana. If no 2026 Montana Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Montana Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Outcome
Michael Hummert
Rank
#4 of 5
Leader
Reilly Neill 87¢
Range
1¢-87¢
Family volume
$12K
Identifier
0x75138243...c653
May 26, 2026, 1:02 AM UTC · 0m ago
Implied probability
Bid
1¢
Ask
2¢
Spread
1¢
Reported volume
$2K
Family rank
#4 of 5
5 outcomes · Montana Democratic Senate Primary Winner
Closes
Jun 2, 2026
Family volume
$12K
Orderbook snapshot
1 / 2¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Montana. If no 2026 Montana Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Montana Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Jun 2, 2026
Identifier
0x75138243…c653
Event family
Montana Democratic Senate Primary Winner.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$12K
Outcomes
5
Highest price
Reilly Neill 87¢
Current share
20%
Reilly Neill
polymarket · 0x776db9e01d9c8559071df4a0d42e9e03d9ee943dc61ce2e11378491da42dc42d
Alani Bankhead
polymarket · 0x1d7f4a41fc4406acc8c8f7aa9dd8d1a3113b217b265cc15289437b4ade8b47cc
Michael BlackWolf
polymarket · 0xf80368a8ffc1b091640840807f5737f06a85c194cf64aafe7d9b0d1bd3be313f
Michael Hummert
polymarket · 0x7513824347f82d50e4007c6b3c86551fd858a6d4054143dadd9c5c0f6c38c653
Kathleen McLaughlin
polymarket · 0x0de7f4b3c3a4ef3dfb550d20422effaa3a5d439d41f4eb77a2a7aff2a8f6c665
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.