Voter turnout between 80% and 82% in the 2026 New Zealand general election
80-82% is priced at 42¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 13¢ bid, 72¢ ask, 59¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 6 inside New Zealand Election: Turnout.
Price history
42¢ current
−2¢Contract brief
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026. This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for the 2026 New Zealand general election, defined as the total number of votes cast divided by the total number of enrolled voters (votes cast to electors on master roll, combined total of General and Māori electorate). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. The primary resolution source for this market will be official election results reported by the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used if official results are not available.
Outcome
80-82%
Rank
#1 of 6
Leader
80-82% 48¢
Range
8¢-48¢
Family volume
$171
Identifier
0x2fbc5174...d216
May 28, 2026, 9:38 PM UTC · 8m ago
Implied probability
Bid
13¢
Ask
72¢
Spread
59¢
Reported volume
$2
Family rank
#1 of 6
6 outcomes · New Zealand Election: Turnout
Closes
Nov 7, 2026
Family volume
$171
Orderbook snapshot
13 / 72¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026. This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for the 2026 New Zealand general election, defined as the total number of votes cast divided by the total number of enrolled voters (votes cast to electors on master roll, combined total of General and Māori electorate). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. The primary resolution source for this market will be official election results reported by the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used if official results are not available.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Nov 7, 2026
Identifier
0x2fbc5174…d216
Event family
New Zealand Election: Turnout.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$171
Outcomes
6
Highest price
80-82% 48¢
Current share
1%
80-82%
polymarket · 0x2fbc517476b26516402a29b4ed57ef15eb733f54acfe06d013b39d247803d216
<76%
polymarket · 0x79ef370aa6842206499fba3a8296ac816f4d527bb2043ba988f804c63893c66f
78-80%
polymarket · 0xd46660d01435c0fa3f6c182487b3936d234e4f7e52a18be6b20711b22252fab2
76-78%
polymarket · 0x345c72542646bdcdb1d48d909d4f7e0ec4762c3d72bca6e6502a855fb67186fc
84%+
polymarket · 0x512e57e2fedc5f926dbbc4e52311a3e08f128cf5170f0536768c0b502ff1e6a4
82-84%
polymarket · 0xbb0105317e01e28b233729ce4afc6f4883099e0ff8a1445a8f7b9a3a869f8916
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.