New Zealand Election
Leader sits at 46% across 6 bound outcomes, runner-up at 34%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Turnout: 80-82%
Outcomes
6
winner-take-all
Runner-up
34¢
Turnout: <76%
Spread
12pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Nov 7, 2026
162 days
Venue
Polymarket
6 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
New Zealand Election: Turnout
New Zealand Election: Turnout: 80-82%
0x2fbc51…d216
New Zealand Election: Turnout: 78-80%
0xd46660…fab2
New Zealand Election: Turnout: 82-84%
0xbb0105…8916
New Zealand Election: Turnout: <76%
0x79ef37…c66f
New Zealand Election: Turnout: 84%+
0x512e57…e6a4
New Zealand Election: Turnout: 76-78%
0x345c72…86fc
What moved the line
- May 28Turnout: 80-82%↓4pp45→41¢ · Polymarket
- May 26Turnout: <76%↓3pp38→35¢ · Polymarket
- May 28Turnout: <76%↓3pp36→33¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in election 2026
- TX-19 Republican Primary Winnerlast 3% · 1d
- Texas Republican Senate Primary Winnerlast 96% · 1d
- Texas Attorney General Republican Primary Runoff Winnerlast 67% · 1d
- TX-38 Republican Primary Winnerlast 3% · 1d
- TX-18 Democratic Primary Winnerlast 89% · 1d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Other questions in election 2026.
In election 2026
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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