Bruno Retailleau · Next French Presidential Election
Bruno Retailleau is priced at 3¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 3¢ bid, 3¢ ask, 0¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 16 inside Next French Presidential Election.
Price history
3¢ current
−47¢Contract brief
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
Outcome
Bruno Retailleau
Rank
#1 of 16
Leader
Bruno Retailleau 3¢
Range
1¢-3¢
Family volume
$56.9M
Identifier
0xc32a544f...be1d
May 28, 2026, 7:38 PM UTC · 22m ago
Implied probability
Bid
3¢
Ask
3¢
Spread
0¢
24h volume
$5K
Family rank
#1 of 16
16 outcomes · Next French Presidential Election
Closes
Apr 30, 2027
Family volume
$56.9M
Orderbook snapshot
3 / 3¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Apr 30, 2027
Identifier
0xc32a544f…be1d
Event family
Next French Presidential Election.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$56.9M
Outcomes
16
Highest price
Bruno Retailleau 3¢
Current share
3%
Bruno Retailleau
polymarket · 0xc32a544f65e3a8ffec6499e40290f10fa68a3f4a4819dfd366b6cb1fd7c4be1d
Mathilde Panot
polymarket · 0x06ea9c02b4c6a2f7f07f78e21411bd367636564edb27c72cd038b556aada1a64
François Bayrou
polymarket · 0x3a8209fbd45fef3be23fb3480eb1c961c85f7bdd07d4a3391f5949252156c594
François Asselineau
polymarket · 0xaba4bb720c6c1b2e48087f5af4a57fd1e9f05814a936e9f6b1c37f10436a34fc
Yaël Braun-Pivet
polymarket · 0xfd431e070263b5f24e43a8fc44532bf41aa008d99cab2330d979913b1c580bd2
Élisabeth Borne
polymarket · 0x0b298ab2b2cad3308d486c804985c1ede7ea949bde363f44784a3b2a460be788
Michel Barnier
polymarket · 0x6ccebbc57547f8b777aa4ef70a452bb5034055d183131a9b6db47fd8d0777921
Xavier Bertrand
polymarket · 0x06a27c2810eaca94b53e7a17f15ad47761399ba445a6b02039b2679da203262d
Ségolène Royal
polymarket · 0x34ed4ad7a7825f168e1084f53e8f60a161579d783b2740e50aa52f710925a136
Manuel Bompard
polymarket · 0xa6c3848b7861841cc9d93a5c2c1d26b3f44e0298a49889968a627214a2b177ae
Olivier Faure
polymarket · 0xbac8d3ca6cc7297022850562d9d66669d5e0a112767337f8a5955417f1984b54
Clémentine Autain
polymarket · 0x2bf80d93be42dac6c1b03298b5ec329a4b9f87b689c7892d544d1029f3a0caf0
Carole Delga
polymarket · 0xcd050c1af02067e33e03861ff6f67c1c85def8bf4bd196256e6d2b178509533b
Nicolas Dupont-Aignan
polymarket · 0x637a2423461f5b531fef314e1e14982b80819de217e32f4f96653caa8af2c47a
Clémence Guetté
polymarket · 0x1779552bade1ad85d35b2e5128136ea04602f26e2b67b7e1b6f9ec46ea8811d3
Valérie Pécresse
polymarket · 0x2859bb44f6c8feac18494db286c2a8b55d9e7394a8366bc8c58cfde353e41c90
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.341
Observability
low
Event type
political
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.