Ron DeSantis · Presidential Election Winner 2028
Ron DeSantis is priced at 3¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 3¢ bid, 3¢ ask, 0¢ spread. This outcome ranks #2 of 16 inside Presidential Election Winner 2028.
Price history
3¢ current
+2¢Contract brief
The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
Outcome
Ron DeSantis
Rank
#2 of 16
Leader
Gavin Newsom 16¢
Range
1¢-16¢
Family volume
$431.1M
Identifier
0x3367d22c...04e2
May 28, 2026, 1:38 AM UTC · 13m ago
Implied probability
Bid
3¢
Ask
3¢
Spread
0¢
24h volume
$22K
Family rank
#2 of 16
16 outcomes · Presidential Election Winner 2028
Closes
Nov 7, 2028
Family volume
$431.1M
Orderbook snapshot
3 / 3¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Nov 7, 2028
Identifier
0x3367d22c…04e2
Event family
Presidential Election Winner 2028.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$431.1M
Outcomes
16
Highest price
Gavin Newsom 16¢
Current share
3%
Gavin Newsom
polymarket · 0x4567b275e6b667a6217f5cb4f06a797d3a1eaf1d0281fb5bc8c75e2046ae7e57
Ron DeSantis
polymarket · 0x3367d22cd2a673014f1960742afdf8601040a8ad856dc0a98bd1a44ee99504e2
Andy Beshear
polymarket · 0x09ad4955c170d46c6d80b5f554435b19e229ff7dbe55370892b64782336cc3b9
LeBron James
polymarket · 0x836b850fc838195374862551a36f1c8691d96ff01e58b0a071f0fc1a0e357fb1
Tim Walz
polymarket · 0xae70ab9bf1c3726fe430a2ba8b517697ae24e0f0ab554b876a5b521153068882
Kim Kardashian
polymarket · 0x7f695758278e6d4d9e63df862afa88d664d3402a3d26e4d32ae05121cdbddba6
Vivek Ramaswamy
polymarket · 0x64396449b471b10b006285fa49dd9a5df535694de7b4c703fdeb0d88d5c4cd33
Greg Abbott
polymarket · 0x01dffa7abae7e5d9b7fb44b06d537c5ac932e2ca422ab4b53366672f5e2dc7d6
Stephen Smith
polymarket · 0x66b906b8205f48a26beb8e553bbb1e7954e87e4f6e1d539823441221d1806e8f
Tulsi Gabbard
polymarket · 0x8fc141205ebce5adf437bfdf4d0c5ff58ff24293b79c9431991346c208bb48ed
Nikki Haley
polymarket · 0xe0173375b7eaccb836f7b92d28a9a2d1cc69e54e5a65fae89a5d7e49aadd332e
Elon Musk
polymarket · 0x68e3c4e0dd8f82d010060032006fd157401b0bd8e04bd2953ae293e31eb99bf6
Glenn Youngkin
polymarket · 0xc4435df23facee8c4cd86090310c7835c2a0425646b2588b0a02e67fa42f444e
Zohran Mamdani
polymarket · 0xf05b4b55336a4c1c7b44c726911d2b559732cff7bad339084de86ae364dc85f6
Eric Trump
polymarket · 0x2d3c4fc5cde6dfb43448402b912e41bd4453e3f030448ed026bff8f1a0bc072e
Michelle Obama
polymarket · 0xbbbece074c2d4010e39e39c85ed67b1131180fcea616073c893fb6beaf51d783
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.341
Observability
low
Event type
political
Full indicator table
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SimpleFunctions context
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Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
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Event Probability API
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Realtime Data API
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.