December 31, 2026 · Pump.fun airdrop by ....?
December 31, 2026 is priced at 24¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 20¢ bid, 28¢ ask, 8¢ spread. This page tracks a standalone prediction-market contract.
Price history
24¢ current
−7¢Contract brief
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Pump.fun launches a token and performs an airdrop by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market "locked" tokens or non-swappable tokens will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes". Airdrops of NFTs will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market is on-chain information and official information from Pump.fun, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Outcome
December 31, 2026
Rank
Standalone
Leader
—
Range
—
Family volume
$156K
Identifier
0xd3a3c1d5...b312
May 27, 2026, 7:08 PM UTC · 8m ago
Implied probability
Bid
20¢
Ask
28¢
Spread
8¢
24h volume
$46
Family rank
Standalone
Standalone contract
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
Family volume
$156K
Orderbook snapshot
20 / 28¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Pump.fun launches a token and performs an airdrop by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market "locked" tokens or non-swappable tokens will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes". Airdrops of NFTs will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market is on-chain information and official information from Pump.fun, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
Identifier
0xd3a3c1d5…b312
Event family
Pump.fun airdrop by ....? .
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$156K
Outcomes
1
Highest price
December 31, 2026 24¢
Current share
100%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.409
Observability
medium
Event type
cultural
Full indicator table
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SimpleFunctions context
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Prediction Market Index
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Market Screener
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Event Probability API
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Realtime Data API
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World State API
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Hedging Workflows
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.